DAY AHEAD:

• EVENTS: President Trump delivers remarks with tech leaders at 14:30EDT/19:30BST.
• DATA: In Europe, final Eurozone CPI for July is seen at 2.9% Y/Y (prev. 2.8%), and core at 2.5% Y/Y (prev. 2.4%). In North America, weekly MBA mortgage applications data are due.
• CENTRAL BANKS: FOMC releases July meeting minutes (see below for preview). Fed’s Musalem (2028 voter) will give an interview to CNBC. ECB President Lagarde participates in a panel on the global economic outlook (text is expected), and gives separate lunch remarks.
• SUPPLY: Germany auctions EUR 6bln of 2036 Bunds; US sells USD 16bln of 20yr bonds.
• ENERGY: Weekly DoE energy inventory data are due; afterhours on Tuesday, API weekly data reportedly showed crude -0.3mln bbls, Cushing -1.4mln bbls, gasoline +1.1mln bbls, distillate -2.8mln bbls.
• EARNINGS: Notable earnings reports due today include: Analog Devices (ADI), TJX Companies (TJX), Lowe’s (LOW), Target (TGT), Estee Lauder (EL), Nordson (NDSN), Coty (COTY).
• PREVIEW - FOMC MINUTES (19:00BST/14:00EDT): The FOMC minutes will be watched for signs of how widely hawkish views were shared at July’s meeting. The Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75%, but three regional presidents dissented in favour of a 25bps hike. Attention will focus on whether other officials also saw a case for tighter policy, particularly amid concerns that supply pressures and strong AI-related investment could sustain inflation. Broader support for the dissenters could keep a September hike in play; markets currently assign roughly a 65% probability to another hold in September. Data since the meeting have strengthened the case for patience; July CPI and PPI were softer, while payroll growth weakened and previous months were revised lower, both reinforcing expectations that the Fed may remain on hold despite inflation staying above target. The minutes may therefore have limited market impact because they pre-date significant new data. Investors may also be more focussed on Chair Warsh’s upcoming remarks at Jackson Hole next week, as well as the next inflation and employment reports ahead of the September meeting. Newsquawk’s full FOMC minutes preview is here.

NEWS:

GEOPOLITICS:

• US-Iran - President Trump ordered top administration envoys to halt conversations with Iran, with White House officials signalling a strategic shift from seeking rapid military victory to a longer-term economic strangulation approach, CNN reports. Meanwhile, Politico said that while Trump is waiting for Iran to capitulate to economic pressure, Tehran may be prepared to outlast the effort.
• US-Iran - Iran has weighed attacking US military targets in Europe if Trump escalates the war, FT reports. Foreign Minister Araghchi rejected ceasefire proposals, stating the war must end rather than pause. Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf dismissed US economic pressure tactics, saying the US was seeking concessions that were never part of the original agreement.
• Iran-UAE - The UAE suspended all trade, commercial and financial transactions with Iran after its defence ministry detected two ballistic missiles launched from Iran towards its territory. The ministry said the missiles appeared to target maritime traffic, with one falling outside territorial waters and one within. Iran denied involvement, with a Foreign Ministry spokesperson calling the allegation contrary to the principle of good neighbourliness.
• Yemen - Sanaa forces have placed Saudi Aramco’s facilities, oil tanks, crude pipelines and export ports on their target list, warning that Saudi Arabia’s refusal to meet Yemeni demands will cost it its oil lifeline, according to Al-Akhbar citing sources. Yemeni naval forces in Hodeidah have blocked all Saudi vessels from transiting Bab al-Mandab for several weeks, while daily transit overall has risen to approximately 30 ships.
• US-South Korea - The US and South Korea agreed to conclude their Ulchi Freedom Shield joint military exercises on 21st August, six days ahead of the original 27th August end date. South Korea’s Foreign Minister confirmed Seoul was not notified in advance of President Trump’s decision, which was communicated via social media.
• US-North Korea - US President Trump is pushing for a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as soon as this autumn, potentially during a November Asia trip, as Trump wants to revive nuclear diplomacy, WSJ reports. No formal planning is under way, however.
• US-ICC - The Trump administration sanctioned ICC President Tomoko Akane and senior trial lawyer Abdoulaye Seye. Secretary of State Marco Rubio threatened further measures to “systematically dismantle” the court. The Netherlands Foreign Minister condemned the action, while four US human rights organisations have filed a lawsuit against the administration’s campaign against the ICC.

TRADE:

• US-Canada - President Trump paused a threatened 50% tariff on nearly USD 20bln of Canadian imports for three days, citing progress towards a deal. Key outstanding issues include US auto tariffs, which were being discussed at a reduction from 25% to 15%, and the reinstatement of US alcohol sales banned by most Canadian provinces. Canadian PM Carney acknowledged substantial progress, while noting important work remains.
• Mexico-China - Mexico is considering further trade restrictions and higher duties on selected imports from China and other countries, with steel and vehicles among possible targets. The measures would support domestic manufacturing and align Mexico more closely with US trade policy, though the economy ministry said no concrete tariff proposal currently exists.

MACRO:

• RBA - RBA Deputy Governor Hauser said the central bank will raise interest rates again if upside inflation risks materialise and consumer prices fail to ease. After the central bank held rates at 4.35% for a second consecutive meeting last week, money markets currently price around 66% probability of an additional hike by December.
• Indonesia - FTSE Russell will defer index changes that would increase Indonesian equities’ weights until at least its December review. It will still implement reductions and removals in September. The move follows MSCI’s June decision to delay its Indonesia market-status review until November.
• Brazil Elections - Brazilian Presidential candidate Bolsonaro added former energy minister Adolfo Sachsida to his economic advisory team. Daniella Marques remains an economic policy spokesperson. The campaign also named advisers focused on women’s empowerment and energy policy.

TECH:

• Nvidia (NVDA) - Small batches of Nvidia H200 chips have been allowed to enter mainland China, with ByteDance and Tencent (TCEGY) each receiving approximately 10,000 processors in recent weeks, FT reports. Although US authorities have cleared the companies to purchase up to 100,000 H200 chips each, Beijing has instructed firms to keep the hardware outside mainland China to support domestic chipmakers, with regulators directing companies to ship processors to Hong Kong instead.
• SK Hynix (SKHY) - SK Hynix’s South Korean union is finalising a tentative wage deal with management, a source told Reuters. A key dispute concerns bonuses after management proposed paying more than half in restricted shares. Workers are set to receive an average KRW 779mln payout in 2026. The deal requires union-member approval.
• Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) - Samsung will invest about KRW 240bln to establish a 21,500m2 FlaktGroup HVAC production line at its Gwangju site by 2028. The facility will manufacture FlaktGroup HVAC systems, including cooling solutions for AI data centres, targeting growing HVAC demand.
• Anthropic, OpenAI - OpenAI’s Q2 revenue rose +18% to USD 6.7bln (from USD 5.7bln) in Q1, while its operating loss widened to USD 12.3bln, WSJ reports. While Anthropic more than doubled Q2 revenue to USD 11.6bln and posted a small adj. operating profit, as Claude Code growth helped it overtake OpenAI in sales.
• Anthropic - Anthropic is preparing super voting shares for CEO Dario Amodei (who reportedly owns about 2% of Anthropic) and other co-founders to strengthen control ahead of a potential IPO later this year, The Information reports. Plans also retain non-shareholder trustees’ power to elect a board majority. Details may change.
• OpenAI - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the company has paused some frontier reinforcement learning training because model capabilities were advancing faster than its safety, alignment and monitoring standards. OpenAI will act unilaterally on safety while advocating shared industry standards, and expects confidence in safety increasingly to determine the pace of AI progress.
• Keysight Technologies (KEYS) - Keysight shares rose 2% in extended US trading after quarterly earnings and revenue beat, and its guided Q4 above expectations, reflecting strong momentum across its end markets. Q3 adj. EPS 3.07 (exp. 2.48), Q3 revenue USD 1.85bln (exp. 1.75bln). Exec said record quarterly results were supported by broad demand across communications, industrial automation, aerospace and defence, automotive, semiconductor and general electronics markets; CEO is confident in sustaining the momentum. Sees Q4 adj. EPS between 3.34-3.40 (exp. 2.68), and Q4 revenue between USD 1.93-1.95bln (exp. 1.83bln).
• Cerebras Systems (CBRS) - Cerebras Systems introduced the CS-4 computer, which it claims will be multiple times faster than its predecessor and give it a wider speed advantage over Nvidia (NVDA). The CS-4 features an improved cooling system, a modular design and can house updated chips due next year; it will become more widely available in Q3.
• IBM (IBM) - IBM and the Singapore Institute of Technology plan to establish a Quantum-Safe Centre at SIT Punggol Campus by the end of 2026.

COMMUNICATIONS:

• Paramount Skydance (PSKY) - Paramount Skydance has hired former Google (GOOG) executives Nick Lee as EVP of media systems, and Suzanne Pellican as EVP head of design, Business Insider reports. The appointments deepen investment in product and technology as CEO David Ellison seeks to make Paramount a technology powerhouse while pursuing its paused USD 110bln acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD).
• Alphabet (GOOG) - Alphabet is seeking up to AUD 5.5bln in its debut Australian dollar bond sale; investor demand exceeded AUD 20bln, Bloomberg said, noting that elevated global yields and heavy tech-sector fundraising are increasing borrowing costs, despite Alphabet’s strong credit rating.

FINANCIALS:

• Crypto - The SEC proposed exemptions from securities registration for certain digital asset offerings, including up to USD 5mln for four years and USD 75mln for 12 months, Bloomberg reports. Larger exempt offerings would require financial statements and ongoing reporting. The proposal also includes a safe harbour from the “investment contract” definition once promised managerial efforts cease.
• KKR & Co. (KKR) - Mavik disclosed a 5.4% stake in KKR Real Estate Finance Trust, betting its strategic review could lead to a sale or liquidation near book value, Bloomberg reports. Mavik estimates a sale of the loan portfolio at 95 cents on the dollar could generate an internal rate of return above 30%.
• Dbs Group Holdings (DBSDY) - Dbs Group Holdings is preparing a succession plan for chairman Peter Seah, who has led the Singapore bank for more than 16 years, Bloomberg reports. Seah, 79, remains non-executive chairman and was re-elected in March. He also chairs Singapore Airlines and sits on the board of GIC.
• Standard Chartered (SCBFY) - Standard Chartered has reorganised its leveraged acquisition finance team, appointing David Law as Global Head of Sponsor Financing and Private Credit, with financing responsibility for corporate clients moving to Surya Bagchi as Global Head, Financing Solutions. The restructuring is aimed at sharpening focus on sponsor-led deals amid increasing dealmaking activity.
• BMPS (BMPSY), Intesa Sanpaolo (ISNPY), Banco BPM (BNNCY), Generali (ARZGY) - BMPS CEO is reportedly working on two share-swap offers for Banco BPM and Generali as an alternative to an Intesa takeover, Il Sole reports; the board has reportedly not been informed of the plan.
• EQT AB (EQTAB) - Oasis Management, which owns 19.5% of Kakaku, urged the company to withdraw support for EQT’s JPY 3,570/shr bid, or seek a price above Bain Capital and LY Corp’s JPY 3,640 offer; Oasis added that it will not tender into EQT’s bid, intensifying the takeover battle.

CONSUMER CYCLICAL:

• Toll Brothers (TOL) - Toll Brothers edged higher in extended trading after a quarterly beat, while its Q4 delivery outlook was broadly in line with consensus. Q3 EPS 2.97 (exp. 2.90), Q3 revenue USD 2.66bln (exp. 2.60bln). Home sales revenue USD 2.65bln, with 2,662 deliveries at an average price of USD 996,400, while net signed contracts +5% Y/Y to 2,508 homes and USD 2.52bln. Backlog ended the quarter at USD 6.24bln across 5,312 homes, and adj. home sales gross margin was 25.6% (35bps above guidance). It raised projected FY26 buybacks to USD 700mln (from USD 650mln). Sees Q4 deliveries between 3,450-3,550 units, and an average delivered home price between USD 995,000-1.005mln. Narrows FY26 deliveries guidance to between 10,500-10,600 units, and FY26 average delivered home price guidance to between USD 995,000-1.0mln, while maintaining FY26 home sales revenue view of about USD 10.5bln, with an adj. gross margin of 26.1%.

CONSUMER DEFENSIVE:

• Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC), JBS (JBS) - JBS has submitted a non-binding proposal to acquire the roughly 18% of Pilgrim’s Pride it does not already own, offering 2.086 JBS Class A shares for each Pilgrim’s Pride share. The proposal requires approval from an independent special committee and minority shareholders. If completed, Pilgrim’s Pride shares would be delisted from Nasdaq.
• Carlsberg (CABGY) - H1 revenue DKK 47.1bln (exp. 47.1bln), EBIT DKK 7.45bln (exp. 7.55bln), net profit DKK 4.29bln (exp. 4.3bln); volumes 48.4mln hl (exp. 78.6mln hl). Sees FY26 organic operating profit growth of between 4-6% (exp. 5.34%, prev. guided 2-6%). CEO: said it saw sustained progress on its key strategic priorities, with particularly strong growth for soft drinks and alcohol-free brews.

INDUSTRIALS:

• LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) - LG Energy is in early stage talks with US government and defence contractors about supplying batteries for drones and unmanned weapons systems, marking a significant strategic shift for a company that has historically avoided the defence sector, Bloomberg writes. The move comes as LG repurposes North American factory capacity away from EVs, with energy storage now the majority of its US business.
• Boeing (BA), Lockheed Martin (LMT) - United Launch Alliance, the Boeing-Lockheed Martin rocket joint venture, is completing a USD 1.5bln private-bond deal, tripling its initial USD 500mln target, Bloomberg reports. The offering comprises four debt tranches with maturities of three to 10 years.
• China Rockets, SpaceX (SPCX) - China LandSpace Technology’s Zhuque-3 rocket successfully landed on its legs on land in China’s Gansu province after sending a satellite into orbit, marking the first land-based booster recovery in China, Bloomberg reports. The feat follows a sea-based recovery in July, and represents a significant step in China’s effort to develop reusable rocket technology to compete with SpaceX, which has been recovering Falcon 9 boosters since 2017.
• Copart (CPRT), CCC Intelligent Solutions (CCC) - Copart is in talks to acquire car insurance software provider CCC Intelligent Solutions, alongside private equity suitors including GTCR and Veritas Capital, Bloomberg reports. CCC has been exploring options after Elliott Investment Management built a large stake. No agreement has yet been reached, and other buyers could emerge, BBG adds.
• Dover Corporation (DOV) - Dover has agreed to acquire India-based Leistung Engineering for an undisclosed amount, adding the cryogenic valve manufacturer to OPW Fluid Transfer Solutions within its Clean Energy & Fueling segment. The transaction is expected to close in Q4.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Rocket Lab has joined the US Space Force’s Space Data Network Consortium, and has received two delivery orders worth a combined USD 12mln. The company will support the Space Data Network Backbone programme by demonstrating secure optical communications interoperability in space, positioning it for potential future work on military satellite communications infrastructure.
• BAE Systems (BAESY) - BAE Systems was awarded a USD 169.22mln US Navy contract modification to exercise options for MK 41 Vertical Launching System canisters and ancillary equipment. The contract includes purchases for the US, Australia, Japan and the Netherlands under the Foreign Military Sales programme.

ENERGY:

• SLB (SLB) - Venezuela signed oil-related contracts with SLB and Hunt Oil, as part of efforts to attract investment and boost crude production, Bloomberg reports. The agreements include a hydrocarbons production participation agreement tied to two oil fields, and a framework agreement with SLB for integrated reservoir studies.
• Santos Ltd (SSLZY) - Santos reported H1 2026 underlying profit -22% Y/Y at USD 397mln, partly due to commissioning costs at its Darwin LNG plant. Output is expected to rise as much as 30% in H2, as Pikka oil in Alaska and Barossa gas in Australia ramp up.

HEALTHCARE:

• Novartis (NVS) - Novartis’ iptacopan has received FDA orphan designation for the treatment of atypical haemolytic uraemic syndrome.
• Stryker (SYK) - Stryker has received a contract modification worth up to USD 100mln from the Defence Logistics Agency for patient monitoring and capital equipment.