US DATA ANALYSIS: February's PPI was hot, even ahead of the March oil price spike

Headline PPI rose 0.7% M/M, above the 0.3% forecast and matching the highest analyst estimate, accelerating from the prior 0.5%. This saw the Y/Y accelerate to 3.4% from the 2.9% prior and consensus, matching the highest analyst forecast. The core M/M rose 0.5%, cooling from the prior 0.8%, while the Y/Y rose 3.9%, accelerating from the 3.6% prior and above the 3.7% forecast. The super core (ex food, energy and trade), rose 0.5% M/M, also above the 0.3% forecast and prior, while the Y/Y rose 3.5%, above the 3.3% forecast and 3.4% prior. Within the report, the PCE components leaned slightly hotter than the January report, with portfolio management fees cooling, air passenger transport rising marginally, and physician care easing. Home health and hospice care, and outpatient and inpatient care accelerated. Oxford Economics highlight that the increase in food and energy prices pushed the headline to its highest level since February 2025, and there are upside risks ahead as the spike in oil prices means food and energy goods, along with transportation services, will likely see larger price increases in the next PPI report. Oxford Economics' PCE tracking nowcast "points to a 0.4% rise in both headline and core prices. This will keep headline PCE inflation steady at 2.8% and help core inflation inch lower to 3.0% from 3.1% in January".