US EQUITY OPEN: Stocks rally and oil tumbles as Trump halts attacks on key Iran infrastructure following talks
OPEN: Stocks open well in the green as Trump suspended attacks on Iranian energy and power infrastructure for five days following productive talks with Iran about ending hostilities in the region. The news resulted in huge downside in oil prices, upside in stocks and bonds while the Dollar was hit as geopolitical risk premium was unwound. However, moves are off the extremes amid mixed reporting about the truth of these talks - Iranian media suggests talks never happened, but Trump hit back with he doesn't know what they're talking about. Nonetheless, it is a de-escalation step taken by the US in the war. Trump has suggested Iran want's a deal badly and that there could be one announced within five days, bolstering hopes of further de-escalation. The vast majority of sectors are green with only energy stocks in the red as energy prices plummet with Brent trading at USD 102/bbl, down from the USD 113.76 peak seen pre-Trump's announcement. T-notes are firmer cross the curve with the move led by the front-end as softer energy prices and hopes of a short war see traders pare global rate hike bets. In FX, the Dollar lags but CAD, AUD and CHF are also underperforming peers - CAD gains limited due to the decline in oil prices. GBP, JPY and NZD outperform with the Pound and Kiwi benefitting from the risk on trade, while Yen benefits from the move lower in US yields. Gold and Silver are still lower, but well off the earlier lows while Bitcoin gains.
STOCK SPECIFICS
- SPDR Energy ETF (XLE): Oil selloff hits energy stocks but supports Airlines (JETS, AAL, UAL, LUV, JBLU).
- AMD (AMD) - Upstage is in talks with AMD to buy 10,000 MI355 AI accelerators as part of efforts to expand large-scale computing capacity in South Korea, Bloomberg reports. The CEO said he discussed the purchase with AMD’s chief executive last week, and wants to diversify beyond Nvidia (NVDA) chips.
- DraftKings (DKNG): US senators are to introduce a bipartisan legislation on Monday to prohibit prediction-market exchanges from listing contracts related to sporting events.
- Synopsys (SNPS): Elliott Investment Management has reportedly built a stake in SNPS.
- Venture Global (VG) Double upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT USD 22
- MongoDB (MDB): Upgraded at Mizuho to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral'.