US FX WRAP: Dollar sees slight gains as geopols dominates as tier 1 data awaits

The Dollar Index saw slight gains on Monday, as geopolitical updates dominated the tape ahead of pivotal US data later in the week, namely, NFP, PCE, and ISM Manufacturing PMI. There was no tier 1 data on Monday, while Fed's Cook said there are signs of broadening pressure in inflation data and expects to see continued inflation pressure in coming months from AI and Middle East conflict. Nonetheless, Dollar price action was dictated by oil moves, as the Buck saw highs as crude benchmarks rose riser through the European session.

G10 FX peformance was mixed against the Greenback, with the Kiwi and the Pound eking out slight gains, and outperforming, while the Swissy lagged, followed by the Loonie, Euro, and Aussie, with the latter awaiting RBA overnight. As a reminder, the RBA is expected to hike the Cash Rate by 25bps to 4.60%, and the central bank has remained hawkish after three rate hikes earlier this year, with latest rhetoric and hotter-than-expected inflation supporting a hike.

The Yen was choppy, as USD/JPY traded between 156.509-157.857, but fell to lows in the European morning amid further jawboning from Japanese officials; FX Official Mimura stated they are closely watching to see if markets take the clear message they are giving at face value. Not satisfied with or reassured by recent JPY action.

Elsewhere on the central bank footing, and seeing slight pressure in the Euro, was as ECB President Lagarde said that she views a measured response as appropriate to keep inflation in check. The ECB President also noted that growth was broad-based across most countries and sectors, and this pattern is expected to have continued in Q3. She added remain in the middle path for monpol that laid out earlier this year. On the neutral rate, she said rates are at the upper end of neutral range but she is not driving policy with a reference to the neutral range.