US GDP Sales QoQ Adv (Q2) Q/Q 2.2% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 1.9%)

A final sales print running above the headline GDP consensus matters because it strips out the inventory contribution, which is the component most prone to noise and subsequent revision; a beat concentrated in final demand has historically carried more signal for the rates path than one driven by stockbuilding, which tends to pay itself back in the following quarter. The prior was already firm and the revision upward suggests momentum into the quarter rather than a one-off. In past episodes of this kind, upside surprises on the demand side of the national accounts have steepened the front end of the curve modestly and supported the dollar against the low yielders, with the follow-through contingent on whether the print is corroborated by the concurrent consumption and income data rather than standing alone. The usual sequence is that desks look first at the composition, consumption versus inventories versus net trade, then at whether the Fed's hawks cite it. The advance estimate is the first of three reads on the quarter, and subsequent revisions have on previous occasions moved the story materially in either direction. Worth watching is how it sits against the prevailing disinflation narrative and the next labour and PCE prints.