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US sells 3-mnth bills at high-rate 3.770%, B/X 2.77x; sells 6-mnth bills at high-rate 3.885%, B/C 2.63x

Subscribers had this at 15:32. Published here 15:52.

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Context

Weekly 3- and 6-month bill auctions are the most routine supply event on the US calendar and rarely carry signal on their own; the information content sits in the bid-to-cover and the tail versus the when-issued level rather than the high rate, which simply tracks where the front of the curve already trades. Bid-to-cover ratios in this area have historically been well behaved given the structural buyer base of money market funds and bills' status as the preferred collateral and cash-parking instrument, so a soft cover here tends to say more about bill supply volumes and dealer balance-sheet capacity than about demand for duration. The spread between the two tenors is the cleaner read: it embeds expectations for the policy path over the coming months and the market's pricing of any debt-ceiling-driven bill issuance distortion, a recurring pattern in which rates on maturities around expected crunch dates have cheapened relative to neighbours. What separates a meaningful auction from noise is a tail or a weak cover repeated across several weeks rather than a single print. Follow-ons are the week's remaining bill and coupon supply and the statement of upcoming auction sizes, where shifts in issuance mix have historically been the more durable driver of front-end spreads.

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