US White House Trade Advisor Navarro says any USMCA deal will have transshipment provisions

Transshipment language is the standard mechanism by which US negotiators try to close the gap between bilateral tariffs and rules of origin: goods routed through Mexico or Canada to dodge duties on third countries, principally China, get caught by content thresholds and penalty tariffs rather than the headline pact rate. Navarro's form on this file is consistent; he has been the administration's most persistent advocate of origin-enforcement provisions, and remarks of this kind have historically signalled the negotiating position is hardening rather than softening. The distinction worth drawing is between provisions aimed at finished goods transshipment, which hit logistics and re-export flows, and those tightening regional value content, which bite integrated supply chains in autos and parts most directly. Past episodes of USMCA renegotiation talk have tended to run through a familiar sequence: rhetorical demands, threats to withdraw or reimpose tariffs, then a deal that embeds stricter origin rules. The transmission channels are the MXN and CAD, autos and industrials with cross-border supply chains, and freight flows through Mexican ports. The tells ahead are whether USTR echoes the language formally and whether the Mexican and Canadian governments push back publicly.