Waves of Russian missiles are attacking Kyiv with more than a dozen heavy explosions in past 30 minutes, according to an FT reporter

The distinction that has mattered historically is between routine bombardment of urban and energy infrastructure, which markets have progressively learned to discount, and escalation in kind, such as strikes on decision-making centres, nuclear-adjacent facilities, or NATO-border incidents, which reprice more durably. The immediate tells are the stated targets, casualty and infrastructure damage assessments, and whether the wave is framed by either side as retaliation for a specific preceding event, since tit-for-tat framing has tended to signal a bounded cycle. Follow-ons worth noting are any shift in Western air-defence or long-range weapons commitments, and the condition of Ukrainian energy infrastructure heading into heating season, which is the channel through which such strikes have historically reached European gas pricing. As a single-source field report, confirmation of scale and targets is the first checkpoint.