US Market Open: NQ futures underperform despite Asia's tech rebound; NZD leads ahead of the RBNZ announcement

An Iranian Ambassador said Iran proposed a seven-day plan to the US and added that Iran seeks to reduce tensions through diplomacy.
Saudi's Ras Tanura refinery was hit by missiles, causing a fire.
US equity futures mixed; Disappointing HSBC earnings weigh on the FTSE 100.
DXY extends further above the 102.00 handle; NZD leads ahead of the RBNZ policy announcement.
Fixed income benchmarks hold onto their firmer footing, amid choppy price action across the energy complex (Brent -0.7%).
Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Durable Goods (Sep), Richmond Fed Index (Oct), Dallas Fed Index (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Israeli legislative election for the Knesset. Supply from the US. Earnings from SoFi, Coca-Cola, Corning, PayPal, Boeing, S&P Global, Robinhood, Seagate, Visa, SK Hynix.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses are broadly lower, with the FTSE 100 (-0.9%) the laggard following disappointing HSBC earnings (see more below). In terms of a broader driver, newsflow has been light. Overnight, tech stocks continued to rebound from the recent AI-led sell-off, with Anthropic filing for an IPO.
Sectors lack a clear bias. Basic Resources top the sector pile, with Tech and Construction closely behind. Optimised Personal Care is the sector underperformer, followed by Autos as Mercedes cut its FY26 guidance, which is weighing on its peers.
Key movers include: HSBC -6.9%, PBT and revenue miss estimates; Novartis +1.1%, adj. operating income and EPS beat while lifting its FY26 operating income guidance; BE Semi +8.8%, as Applied Materials plans to raise its stake to 20% (currently 9%); Ferrovial +8.7%, reportedly looking to find a JV partner to finance its data centre campus.
US equity futures are mixed, with the NQ underperforming despite a tech rebound overnight. Nvidia and Meta are flat pre-market, as the former plans a USD 3bln investment in Meta’s equity offering. Elsewhere, Cadence Design Systems (+3.1%) is higher pre-market after a Q3 beat and guidance upgrade.
Click for the session's European pre-market equity newsflow
Click for the additional news

FX

DXY extended Monday's gains and sits at the upper end of a 101.99 to 102.29 range, comfortably above its 100-DMA (100.60) and 200-DMA (99.59). Currency-specific newsflow has been light, as participants await this week's slew of risk events, including the FOMC, BoJ and ECB meetings, the UK Budget, US PCE and three Mag-7 earnings reports; ING wrote that higher energy prices and a hawkish Fed can keep the Dollar supported this week, barring clearly underwhelming results from the likes of Alphabet and Microsoft. Today's US docket includes Durable Goods, Richmond Fed and Dallas Fed Services, while the Israeli election is also in focus, with exit polls due at 20:00GMT/16:00EDT.
EUR/USD has extended beneath Monday's 1.1173 trough, and currently holds at the bottom end of a 1.1135 to 1.1177 range, largely moving in tandem with the USD; the pair sits well below its 100-DMA (1.1559) and 200-DMA (1.1632). Options today reside at 1.1175 (EUR 834mln) and 1.1200 (EUR 721mln).
USD/JPY is incrementally firmer, and holds at the upper end of a 157.42 to 157.89 range, just beneath the 200-DMA at 158.52. Some focus could fall on today's NY cut (in the absence of macro impulses), which sees a cluster of expiries, most notably at 157.85 (USD 2.1bln), alongside 157.75 (USD 1bln) and 158.00 (USD 1.5bln). On the verbal intervention front, Japan's FinMin Katayama said the government will respond to FX trade damage with a sense of urgency, while former BoJ Governor Kuroda said the BoJ will likely consider raising rates at each upcoming meeting; overnight, BoJ Core CPI rose to 3.2% (prev. 2.6%), ahead of Friday's BoJ decision.
GBP/USD is a touch softer and trades in a 1.3307 to 1.3349 range, holding just beneath its 100-DMA (1.3386) and 200-DMA (1.3429) ahead of tomorrow's Autumn Budget. The BRC Shop Price Inflation report ticked higher (2.1% vs exp. 1.6%), while The Times reported that Chancellor Healey will announce plans to raise the minimum wage by nearly 4%, but slow the rise for young people. Options see GBP 800mln rolling off 1.3300.
The Antipodeans outperform, with the NZD higher as the NZIER Shadow Board also recommends a hike, with the RBNZ also expected to hike rates overnight. Australian CPI is also due on Wednesday.

FIXED INCOME

An initial modestly firmer bias gave way to relatively flat performance, but with a negative skew from the renewed, but brief, upside in Brent and WTI. More recently, that upside has waned, with fixed benchmarks now picking up a touch, taking USTs into the green by a few ticks.
The US day is mainly counting down to the FOMC on Wednesday. That aside, the Israeli election is of potential note (exit poll due at 20:00GMT), in case it results in an approach-change to the Middle East conflict.
Bunds in-fitting with USTs, but with some very modest outperformance, as while the upside in the global energy benchmarks has weighed, Dutch TTF has pulled back slightly from the marked upside on Monday, providing some relative relief. At the time of writing, Bunds hold above the 122.00 handle in 121.96 to 122.23 parameters.
OATs take a bit of a breather from the rally on Monday, currently lower by about 30 ticks vs upside of around 80 ticks overall that session. As such, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread is around 7bps wider, erasing roughly half of the tightening on Monday post-Moody’s.
Finally, Gilts opened with gains of 13 ticks, before climbing another 31 to an 85.43 peak. Upside driven by the minimum wage reporting being digested, a lift that mechanically provides Chancellor Healey with a significant headroom win. Since, as energy picked up across the morning, this strength has waned somewhat.
UK sells GBP 4.5bln 4.625% 2032 Gilt: b/c 3.51x (prev. 3.07x), average yield 5.026% (prev. 4.84%), tail 0.3bps (prev. 0.4bps).
Italy sells EUR 2.0bln (exp. 1.5-2.0bln) 3.00% 2028 BTP: b/c 1.72x (prev. 1.64x), average yield 3.55% (prev. 3.64%).
Australia sells AUD 1.0bln in 4.75% October 2037 Bonds: b/c 3.12x, avg. yield 5.2051%.

COMMODITIES

Crude benchmarks dipped in the APAC session amid a lack of major geopolitical escalation, but climbed as Europe stepped in, before paring some of that upside to currently sit in the upper half of today's ranges but modestly lower on a percentage change. WTI Dec'26 trades within a USD 100.60-102.82/bbl range, and Brent Jan'27 within a USD 109.53-111.91/bbl range; both remain within Monday's parameters (WTI: USD 100.33-103.13/bbl; Brent: USD 109.22-112.20/bbl).
The move higher came after Iranian state media IRIB, citing Arab media, reported that Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery (550k BPD) was targeted by missiles; reports later suggested the fire was contained. More recently, Saudi Civil Defence issued an emergency alert in Najran, while the Houthis claimed an attack on Abha and Khamis Mushait, with explosions reportedly heard in both cities and at Khamis Mushait Air Base; Saudi Civil Defence has since said the danger has passed. Elsewhere, sources said OPEC+ is expected to maintain December oil production targets at Sunday's meeting.
Dutch TTF is lower by c. 1.6%, within a EUR 94.85-96.70/MWh range. Iranian President Pezeshkian met Qatar's Emir at the GECF summit in Moscow, where they discussed expanding energy cooperation, while Press TV reported that Iran, Russia and Azerbaijan are discussing a gas swap agreement.
Spot gold slipped back beneath the USD 4k/oz mark in the European morning, and sits towards the bottom end of a USD 3,989-4,026/oz range alongside the firmer Dollar, well beneath its 100-DMA (USD 4,218/oz) and 200-DMA (USD 4,504/oz). Spot silver is lower by c. 1.4% within a USD 52.67-54.23/oz range.
Copper is firmer, with CME copper futures up c. 0.9% and at the top of a USD 6.54-6.60/lb range, having edged higher overnight alongside the tech-related momentum in stocks. 3M LME copper trades in a USD 14,322.18-14,446.72/t range.
US President Trump is to ease oil well methane curbs in a bid to lower costs.
OPEC+ is reportedly expected to maintain December oil production targets at Sunday's meeting, according to sources.
Singapore and France are to deepen cooperation on electricity and gas, while Singapore and New Zealand will also strengthen energy cooperation.

TRADE/TARIFFS

USTR Greer issued a statement regarding the status of the US-EU deal to pause duties on certain EU imports, while he stated that European Investment Bank loans to Airbus (AIR FP) may be a violation of the US-EU trade truce and it is important that the situation is resolved as soon as possible.
German Chancellor Merz said the EU seeks closer partnership with ASEAN and is complementary to talks between the EU and Canada. Regarding CPTPP collaboration, Merz said that the EU, with 450mln consumers, has strategic interest in having open access to markets.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

UK Chancellor Healey unveiled five everyday fixes to ease household costs, support working families and end the Carer’s Allowance cliff edge ahead of Wednesday’s Budget, according to the government.
The European Commission is reportedly exploring using revenues from a global corporate tax agreement targeting large multinationals to fund the EU's next seven-year budget, Politico reported citing sources.
French Finance Minister Lescure said France must appease protesters without extra spending and that the government can come up with creative solutions without widening the budget deficit, according to the FT.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

European M3 Money Supply (Sep YY) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.5%).
European Loans to Households (Sep YY) 3.1% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 3.1%).
European Loans to Companies (Sep YY) 4.2% (Prev. 4.2%).
UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (Oct) 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. 1.4%).
French Consumer Confidence (Oct) 80 vs. Exp. 85 (Prev. 85).

CENTRAL BANKS

New Zealand NZIER Shadow Board recommended the RBNZ raise the cash rate this week.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

US President Trump posted "The Trump Administration is proud to announce a 250 MILLION DOLLAR PLUS initiative to RECRUIT and RETAIN Nurses for Nursing Homes!"
US appeals court denied the Trump administration's request to stop California from counting mail ballots from alleged non-citizens.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

The Iranian Ambassador to South Korea said Iran has proposed a seven-day plan to the US and is preparing a response to US feedback, adding that Iran does not want war and seeks to reduce tensions through diplomacy. Additionally, the ambassador said that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen on the sixth day if Washington accepts the conditions, with negotiations beginning on the seventh day.
Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary General Rezaei said security in West Asia must be devoid of foreign interference, following the conclusion of quadrilateral talks involving Iran, Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia in Tehran, according to Press TV.
IRGC Supreme Leader's representative warned that Iran knows the enemy's vulnerabilities and would deliver a more devastating response than before if attacked again.
A Houthi official said Egypt's parliament authorising military support for Saudi Arabia amounts to a declaration of war against Yemen, AFP reported.
Saudi-led coalition intercepted three Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at the eastern region, while it also intercepted four drones launched by Yemen's Houthis towards the southern region.
Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery (550k BPD) was reportedly targeted by missiles, triggering powerful explosions and large plumes of smoke, IRIB reported. Following this, Saudi Arabia said it contained the fire near the Ras Tanura oil hub following an attack.
Explosions were reportedly heard at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, while Saudi Civil Defence said sirens sounded in Al-Kharj and the Eastern Province, ISNA reported.
Saudi airstrikes reported on port of Mokha and surrounding areas in Yemen, according to SNN.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

Russian Defence Ministry said Russia suspended strikes on Ukraine's Kherson as a ceasefire began in Oleshky.
Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces struck a cargo ship in the Black Sea and an industrial facility producing drones in Kyiv, according to IFX.
Russian attacks targeted Kyiv's transport infrastructure and logistics hub in the Kharkiv region.
Explosions were heard in Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, according to reports citing a witness.

OTHER

Taiwan considers drone swarms as a defence measure against Beijing's grey-zone operations, according to the South China Morning Post.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin remains contained within Monday's parameters, as the cryptocoin falls below USD 80k.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed, but with strength seen in tech stocks following the outperformance in the sector stateside as it recovered from the recent AI-led sell-off and with Anthropic filing for an IPO.
ASX 200 clawed back initial losses with the index led higher by the commodity-related sectors, but with gains capped as defensives and consumer stocks lagged.
Nikkei 225 was underpinned by the tech-related momentum, with SoftBank among the biggest gainers owing to its stake in Anthropic and as it explores AI and digital infrastructure opportunities in Malaysia.
KOSPI outperformed and triggered a sidecar amid the tech strength and stronger-than-expected GDP.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged despite the PBoC's liquidity boost, with today's open market operations totalling more than CNY 1.4tln, while continued double-digit percentage growth in YTD Industrial Profits also failed to inspire, as participants await earnings releases and with HSBC shares pressured after its results missed expectations. In addition, trade frictions lingered as the EU plans to impose import restrictions on Chinese chemicals and furniture.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

Japanese government expert panel discussed revision to three security-related documents, Kyodo reported citing sources, adding that "tax increases should not be ruled out as an option if necessary."

NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP

Chinese Industrial Profits (YTD) (Sep YY) 15.5% (Prev. 15.7%).
South Korean GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q3 QQ) 1% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.6%).
South Korean GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q3 YY) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3% (Prev. 3.7%).