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Newsquawk Midterm Preview

Newsquawk Midterm Preview is the desk's guide to the 2026 US midterm elections for markets: the races that decide control of the House and the Senate, what each outcome could mean for Treasuries, the dollar, equities and crude, and what to watch on election night, Tuesday 3rd November 2026.

The desk publishes its previews in the run-up to election night. The latest appears here in full, with every earlier one listed below it and the election-night timetable after them.

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The first Newsquawk Midterm Preview publishes on Wednesday 14th October 2026.

Election night, hour by hour

When the polls close on Tuesday 3rd November 2026, in New York and London time. The UK's clocks go back on 25th October and America's on 1st November, so on election night London is five hours ahead of New York.1,2

  1. 18:00 ET23:00 UKMost of Indiana and Kentucky
  2. 19:00 ET00:00 Wed UKGeorgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia; most of Florida; the rest of Indiana and Kentucky; parts of New Hampshire
  3. 19:30 ET00:30 Wed UKNorth Carolina, Ohio, West VirginiaOhio (special)
  4. 20:00 ET01:00 Wed UKAlabama, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee; the rest of Florida and New Hampshire; most of Michigan, Texas, Kansas, North Dakota and South DakotaMaine, New Hampshire
  5. 20:30 ET01:30 Wed UKArkansas
  6. 21:00 ET02:00 Wed UKArizona, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin, Wyoming; the rest of Michigan, Texas, Kansas, North Dakota and South DakotaIowa, Kansas, Michigan, Texas
  7. 22:00 ET03:00 Wed UKMontana, Nevada, Utah; most of Idaho; most of Oregon's Malheur County
  8. 23:00 ET04:00 Wed UKCalifornia, Washington; the rest of Oregon and Idaho
  9. 00:00 Wed ET05:00 Wed UKHawaii; most of Alaska
  10. 01:00 Wed ET06:00 Wed UKThe rest of Alaska (the western Aleutian Islands)Alaska

Times are when all or most of a state's polls close; Kansas and North Dakota counties and New Hampshire towns set some of their own hours. Oregon and Washington vote by post, so theirs is the deadline for dropping off a ballot. Competitive Senate races are those the Cook Political Report rated Toss Up or Lean on 6th October 2026, listed when the state's last polls close; ratings change.3,4,5,6

The midterms: questions

When are the 2026 US midterm elections?

On Tuesday 3rd November 2026. US federal law sets election day as the Tuesday after the first Monday in November of every even-numbered year.7

What is on the ballot?

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives; 35 of the Senate's 100 seats, the 33 regular seats of its Class II and special elections in Florida and Ohio; and 36 governorships.8,9,10,11

Who controls Congress now, and what does a majority take?

Republicans hold both chambers. On 8th October 2026 the Senate had 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats, and the House had 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, 1 independent and 2 vacancies. A majority is 218 House seats, and 51 Senate seats or 50 with the vice president's tie-breaking vote. Measured against the 2024 results, Democrats need a net gain of three House seats and four Senate seats to take control.8,9,11,12,13

What time do the polls close, in UK time?

The first close at 18:00 New York time, 23:00 in London, in most of Indiana and Kentucky. Most eastern states have closed by 20:00 ET (01:00 UK). By 21:00 ET (02:00 UK) polls have closed in Iowa, Kansas, Michigan and Texas, whose Senate races the Cook Political Report rates as toss-ups, and the last polls, in Alaska, close at 01:00 ET (06:00 UK) on Wednesday 4th November.3,4,5,6

When will we know who controls Congress?

Possibly not on the night. The AP calls a race only when the trailing candidate can no longer catch up, and calls a chamber only when one party has won 218 House seats or 51 Senate seats (50 with the vice president). In 2022 it called the Senate four days after election day and the House eight days after. Some states take longer: California counts mail ballots postmarked by election day that arrive within seven days, Nevada within four and Alaska within ten. Maine and Alaska use ranked-choice voting, which can need another round of counting, and Georgia holds a runoff on 1st December if no candidate wins more than half the vote.13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21

When does the new Congress take office?

At noon on 3rd January 2027, when members' terms begin under the 20th Amendment. Congress can set a different day for its first meeting by law: a 2010 law moved the 2011 meeting to 5th January.22,23

How have US stocks done after midterm elections?

Capital Group calculates that since 1950 the S&P 500 has risen 15.4% on average in the year after a midterm, measured from election day. U.S. Bank, counting 31 midterms since 1900, puts the average gain over the following 12 months at 12.4%, notes that stocks did not rise after every one, and found no dependable midterm effect in its statistical tests.24,25

Sources, checked 8th October 2026

  1. Daylight Saving Time Rules, NIST
  2. When do the clocks change?, GOV.UK
  3. State Poll Opening and Closing Times (2026), Ballotpedia
  4. 2026 Polling Hours, The Green Papers
  5. 2026 Election Poll Closing Times, 270toWin
  6. 2026 Senate Race Ratings, Cook Political Report (6th October 2026)
  7. 2 U.S. Code § 7, Time of election
  8. United States House of Representatives elections, 2026, Ballotpedia
  9. United States Senate elections, 2026, Ballotpedia
  10. Gubernatorial elections, 2026, Ballotpedia
  11. Senators, United States Senate
  12. Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives
  13. How we declare winners, AP
  14. Catherine Cortez Masto wins Senate race in Nevada, giving Democrats majority, PBS NewsHour (12th November 2022)
  15. Why AP has called control of the US House for Republicans, AP via ClickOrlando (16th November 2022)
  16. Table 11: Receipt and Postmark Deadlines for Absentee/Mail Ballots, NCSL
  17. Vote by Mail, California Secretary of State
  18. What to know about Alaska's general election, Alaska Public Media (5th October 2026)
  19. Ranked-choice voting frequently asked questions, Maine Secretary of State
  20. Last Day to Register to Vote in the Runoff Election, Georgia.gov
  21. Georgia Code § 21-2-501, Number of votes required for election; runoff, Justia
  22. Twentieth Amendment, Constitution of the United States
  23. Public Law 111-289, govinfo
  24. How US midterm elections affect the markets, Capital Group (26th January 2026)
  25. How midterm elections affect the stock market, U.S. Bank (28th September 2026)

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