Iran has reportedly launched drones towards ships in the Strait of Hormuz, reports Israel Channel 12

The usual sequence in comparable episodes has been an immediate bid in crude through the prompt spreads, with freight and war-risk insurance premia repricing alongside, while the dollar firming and safe-haven FX demand follow if the incident looks sustained. The operative distinction is between harassment and actual disruption: past episodes of drone or boat approaches that stopped short of strikes or seizures tended to fade in price terms once no vessel loss or closure was confirmed, whereas episodes that interrupted flows held their premium. The sourcing is a single Israeli media report, which matters, as unconfirmed reports in this conflict cycle have been walked back or reframed before, and confirmation or denial from maritime authorities or other actors typically arrives within hours. Follow-ons worth noting are any statement from Tehran, reports from tanker-tracking or naval channels, and whether shipping lanes show diversion or stoppage rather than isolated incidents. Until such confirmation, the pattern is a headline-sensitive premium rather than a structural repricing.