A person familiar with Russia’s position confirmed that Moscow and Kyiv had resumed talks on a possible energy ceasefire, but sources say Putin is reluctant to strike a deal before winter, reports FT

Talks of a mutual pause on strikes against energy infrastructure have surfaced repeatedly through the conflict, and the established pattern is that headline-driven optimism fades quickly once the sequencing problem appears: each side wants the other's restraint locked in first, and verification has historically been the sticking point. The reported reluctance to deal before winter is the textbook leverage read, since cold-weather months are when attacks on power and heating infrastructure carry maximum pressure, and holding the option open has value precisely because of that. For gas and power markets, episodes of this kind have tended to compress risk premium in prompt European contracts on the headline, with the move retracing as details fail to follow; the more durable transmission channel has been through freight, insurance and refining margins rather than the ceasefire rhetoric itself. A confirmed deal would matter most for Ukrainian grid stability and for Russian refining and export infrastructure, where strikes have periodically tightened product markets. The tells worth noting are whether the sourcing firms up beyond a single person familiar, whether Kyiv confirms reciprocity, and whether the talks survive contact with the front line. As with prior rounds, a named negotiator and a venue are the difference between signalling and substance.