A White House official confirms that Trump plans to sign the Russia sanctions bill, reports AP; says unclear when

Sanctions bills of this kind have tended to be signed when the administration wants the appearance of leverage ahead of negotiation rather than the immediate application of it, and the 'unclear when' qualifier is the operative part: the gap between signature and implementation is where prior episodes have been diluted through carve-outs, waiver authority, or delayed effective dates. The transmission channel worth isolating is not broad risk but the specific exposure: secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian energy tighten seaborne supply through freight, insurance, and payment channels, which is what historically lifts crude differentials and compresses European gas margins, while a version aimed only at already-sanctioned flows is largely symbolic. Currency effects in past comparable sequences have been concentrated in the rouble proxy set and European energy importers rather than in the dollar broadly. The tells are the bill's secondary sanctions language, the scope of presidential waiver discretion, and whether signing is timed against diplomatic contacts with Moscow, since administrations have previously used signature as a negotiating instrument and slowed the follow-through. Implementation guidance from Treasury, not the signing itself, is what has moved markets in comparable episodes.