Headlines

Agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is approaching, N12's Ravid reports; Senior US officials and sources in the mediating countries say that the agreement could be announced as early as tonight

Newsquawk Staff ·

Main points of the emerging agreement

  • A temporary arrangement for 60 days between Oman and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, with the possibility of extension.
  • The ceasefire between the US and Iran will be renewed.
  • Vessel traffic entering the Gulf through the Strait will pass through Iranian maritime space.
  • Vessel traffic exiting the Strait to the Arabian Sea will pass through Oman's maritime space, in coordination with Iran.
  • During the 60-day period, no transit fees or user fees will be collected.
  • The parties will work to clear mines from the central channel of the Strait within 30 days.
  • After the central channel is cleared Mines, it will be used for incoming and outgoing vessel traffic.
  • Oman and Iran will negotiate a permanent arrangement for ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

Two regional sources said that Araqchi had given his approval in principle to the agreement over the weekend, but still needed the approval of Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, and the Supreme National Security Council.

 A senior American official and a regional source said that the Iranian leadership completed the approval process on Tuesday.

What it means

Chokepoint reopening stories follow a well-worn sequence: an initial headline on an agreement in principle, a gap while principals sign off, then confirmation, and only after that the slower normalisation of actual transits, since shipowners and war-risk underwriters reprice on demonstrated safety rather than on communiques. The structure described here, a temporary arrangement with a defined duration, split inbound and outbound routing through Iranian and Omani waters, a fee moratorium, and a demining timetable, resembles past de-escalation frameworks in the Gulf where the demining and inspection mechanics, not the political announcement, set the pace of resumed flows. The channels that have historically moved first in such episodes are front-month crude and product spreads, tanker freight rates, and war-risk insurance premia for Gulf transits, with the curve's prompt strength unwinding as physical passage is verified rather than when the deal is declared. Oman's role as intermediary is consistent with its long-standing function as the acceptable channel between Washington and Tehran, and Iranian approval routed through the Supreme National Security Council and the Supreme Leader is the standard ratification path, meaning approval in principle from the foreign ministry has historically not been the binding constraint. The tells that have mattered in comparable episodes are whether the announcement lands on the suggested timetable, whether the renewal of the ceasefire holds through the arrangement's early days, and the first confirmed laden transits under the new routing. Until traffic and insurance data corroborate the reopening, precedent argues for treating the repricing in energy and freight as provisional.

Sources

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