Al-Arabiya sources say that Israeli PM Netanyahu told US Envoy Kushner and Mladenov that withdrawal from Gaza is contingent on Hamas removing its weapons from Gaza

Conditionality of this kind, withdrawal tied to prior disarmament, is a recurring feature of ceasefire frameworks in this conflict, and episodes of this type have historically moved in long cycles of proposal, rejection and renegotiation rather than single decisive steps. The channel that matters for markets is the sequencing: when disarmament is set as a precondition rather than a parallel track, past rounds have tended to stall at that junction, and the tell is whether the other side's counterparty accepts the ordering or reverts to insisting on simultaneous steps. The involvement of US envoys signals the talks remain at the sponsored track, which in comparable episodes has extended timelines but kept the framework alive. For crude, the transmission runs through regional risk premia, freight and insurance costs on Gulf and Red Sea routes rather than physical supply, and prior flare-ups have shown that premium builds on escalation headlines and bleeds out on talk of process, with headline-driven spikes tending to fade absent an actual supply disruption. Gold's bid in these episodes has similarly tracked the durability of the security threat rather than diplomatic detail. Worth watching is whether the condition is publicly accepted, rejected or finessed by the counterparty, and whether talks shift from the withdrawal file back to the hostage and aid tracks, which is where prior rounds have found room to move.