"An explosion was heard in the Strait of Hormuz", Alibk reports

Reports of explosions in or near the Strait of Hormuz have historically been the single most sensitive headline for crude, given the share of seaborne oil that transits the chokepoint, but the typical pattern in past incidents of this kind is an initial knee-jerk bid that fades once the event is confirmed as a drill, an accident, or a minor incident rather than an attack on shipping. The distinction that matters is between noise near the strait and actual disruption to tanker traffic: only the latter has durably moved freight rates, war-risk insurance premia, and the front of the crude curve. Single-source reports of this kind have frequently been amended or walked back, and the attribution is to an outlet with no established track record in this channel, which historically lowers the hit rate. The tells that have mattered in comparable episodes are tanker tracking showing vessels altering course, official confirmation or denial from regional authorities, and any statement from naval forces operating in the Gulf. Until one of those confirms disruption, episodes like this have tended to retrace most of the initial move in crude and Gulf-linked assets.