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An official from one of the countries mediating between the US and Iran tells The Times of Israel that US President Trump appears to be leaning toward ordering a major US ground operation against Iran, with US convinced Iran will buckle under pressure

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  • "The official intimately familiar with the mediation efforts says the US privately recognizes that Iran is not likely to agree to the concessions presented in Washington’s 15-point plan and has dispatched thousands of troops to the region in order to capture Tehran’s Kharg Island on Trump’s orders."
  • "A second official from a mediating country warns that while the US may be able to capture the island, holding onto it for an extended period of time will require many more soldiers and an extended period of fighting — far beyond the four-to-six week window that Washington has told the public that the war would last. While Saturday will be the four-week mark, the US still claims to be well ahead of schedule."
  • "Both officials from mediating countries say that the Islamic Republic is not likely to capitulate, regardless of whether a ground operation moves ahead."

Context

The reported shift in U.S. strategy toward a potential ground operation in Iran suggests a significant escalation in tensions, which could destabilize the region and impact global markets. The suggestion that Iran is unlikely to capitulate under pressure implies that any military action might prolong conflict, affecting commodities like oil and creating volatility in currency and equity markets as investors reassess risk.

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