US EQUITY OPEN: Stocks mixed at the open as AI stock rout continues

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US EQUITY OPEN: Stocks mixed at the open as AI stock rout continues

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US EQUITY OPEN: Stocks opened mixed on Friday, with further pressure on the Nasdaq as the AI rout continued. The Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell 1.8% and the Memory ETF (DRAM) declined 3% at the open. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 were little changed, while the Dow gained and the equal-weight S&P 500 outperformed, as weakness in AI and technology stocks continued to weigh on the broader indices. Overnight, reports suggested some investors had lowered their valuation expectations for Anthropic to USD 1.5tln from USD 2tln following disappointing revenue figures.

Most sectors opened higher, led by Materials, Financials, Consumer Staples and Energy, while Technology and Communication Services lagged.

Crude prices were mixed and choppy amid ongoing geopolitical developments. Overnight, Trump said he was not considering using nuclear weapons against Iran, although he threatened to strike Pickaxe Mountain. Meanwhile, further reports emerged of tankers being set ablaze while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Elsewhere, Saudi-Houthi tensions remained elevated after the Houthis struck Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port.

The Treasury yield curve steepened, with front-end yields declining after Fed Chair Warsh continued to refrain from providing explicit forward guidance. Some participants interpreted his remarks as suggesting he was comfortable with current market pricing for an October pause, despite the hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI reports. Meanwhile, US economic data was mixed, with Import and Export Prices exceeding forecasts, while the NY Fed Services Activity survey deteriorated further into negative territory. Industrial Production also beat expectations, although Manufacturing Production was in line with forecasts.

In FX, the Dollar weakened following Warsh's remarks, while antipodean and other risk-sensitive currencies outperformed.

STOCK SPECIFICS

  • Tesla (TSLA): Revealed its Roadster can accelerate from 0-60mph in under one second and use thrusters to land after a ramp jump, with production set for 2028
  • Netflix (NFLX): Chief Content Officer to leave
  • Varonis Systems (VRNS): To be acquired by Proofpoint for USD 49.75/shr
  • Alcoa (AA): Earnings beat expectations
  • Travelers Companies (TRV): Earnings beat expectations, although Personal Insurance declined, with net premiums written above expectations
  • Strategy (MSTR): MSCI's new rules could reportedly see Strategy removed from its indexes
  • Workday (WDAY): Downgraded at KeyBanc to 'Sector Weight' from 'Overweight'
  • EchoStar (ECHO): Upgraded at JPMorgan to 'Overweight' from 'Underweight'

Context

Multi-session selloffs concentrated in AI-linked names have a familiar shape: the pressure typically shows up first in semiconductors and memory, where positioning is densest, while cap-weighted indices lag their equal-weight counterparts, exactly the divergence visible here between the Nasdaq's decline and the Dow and equal-weight S&P's resilience. In prior episodes of this kind, the tell for whether a rout is a valuation reset or a broader unwind has been breadth: rotation into Materials, Financials and Staples while only Tech and Communication Services fall points to the former rather than a general risk-off. The Anthropic repricing chatter fits the established pattern in which private-market markdowns of flagship AI names act as a sentiment catalyst for listed comparables, even when the revenue signal is secondhand. On rates, a front-end-led steepener following a Fed Chair who withholds guidance in the face of hot CPI and PPI is a recurring configuration: markets read silence as acquiescence to prevailing pricing, and the Dollar's softening alongside antipodean strength is the usual FX expression of that read. Geopolitical crude risk around the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi-Houthi strikes is the kind where freight and insurance costs move before flat price, and where choppy, headline-driven tape tends to persist until flows are actually interrupted. The follow-ons worth noting are whether the AI selling broadens into software and the index-exclusion story around Strategy, since MSCI methodology changes have historically generated forced-flow dynamics that trade independently of fundamentals.

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