[ANALYSIS] Iran War enters Day 5; “Broad Wave” strikes on Tehran, Hormuz risks elevated, and Lebanon front intensifies

OVERVIEW

• Day 5 of Operation Epic Fury (Wed, 4 March 2026) began with Israel launching a “broad wave of strikes” across Tehran, targeting missile launch sites, air-defence systems, and additional regime infrastructure.
• The IRGC s launched its "17th wave" of retaliatory strikes, firing approximately 40 missiles at US and Israeli targets. Reports also indicate projectiles fired from Lebanon to Israel.
• US Central Command claimed there is “not a single Iranian ship underway” in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, or Gulf of Oman.
• Iranian officials insist they maintain "complete control" of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Trump said Iran’s air protection/detection capabilities were “knocked out,” and announced the US would provide political risk insurance/guarantees for Gulf maritime trade; he also said the US Navy could escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary.

DETAILS

Strait of Hormuz and Maritime Threats

• Iranian claims on tankers: Fars (via Iranian officials) claimed more than 10 tankers that ignored warnings were struck; Western reporting notes this could not be independently verified.
• US policy response: Trump ordered political risk insurance / financial guarantees (via the US International Development Finance Corporation) and said the US Navy could escort tankers through Hormuz if needed.
• Shipping incident: UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported a vessel struck by an “unknown projectile” 7NM east of Fujairah (UAE), damaging steel plating; no fire, no water ingress, crew safe.

Air Campaign and Targeting

• Israel said its overnight strikes hit “dozens of command centres” in Tehran, including Basij-linked and internal security command sites, plus missile launchers and logistics/supply facilities.
• US Central Command said US forces have struck nearly 2,000 targets in Iran and destroyed 17 Iranian ships.
• Sri Lankan Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that an Iranian naval ship is sinking off the coast of the country. Sri Lanka's navy is currently rescuing 30+ crew members from a sinking Iranian naval ship off its coast; the cause remains unconfirmed.

New Iranian Leader

• Iran International reported the Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader, the second-eldest son of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
• Israeli Defence Minister Katz said that any leader appointed in Iran will be an explicit target.

Gulf Countries

• Saudi Arabia: Two drones hit the US embassy in Riyadh (limited fire/minor damage per Saudi MoD), and reports separately suggested a suspected Iranian drone strike hit the CIA station at the embassy on Monday; CIA declined comment.
• UAE: Dubai consulate incident confirmed by US officials; fire contained; no injuries reported. This morning, Iran's IRNA reported plumes of smoke rising from the US Consulate in Dubai.
• Kuwait: A fatality after shrapnel fell in a residential area, according to Kuwait’s health ministry spokesperson.

Lebanon Front

• Israel issued evacuation warnings for multiple locations in southern Lebanon and continued strikes against Hezbollah-linked infrastructure; Lebanon’s health ministry reported 40 killed over two days and 246 injured.
• Israel said it killed Daoud Ali Zadeh, described as commander of Iran’s Quds Force in Lebanon, in a Tehran strike.
• The US has closed its embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, "until further notice."

Nuclear Programme

• IAEA Director General Grossi said there is no evidence Iran is building a nuclear bomb, while warning that Iran’s stockpile of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium and limits on inspector access remain a serious concern; he said the agency cannot assure the programme is exclusively peaceful without cooperation on safeguards issues.
• A number of Iranian media reported that an explosion was heard in Karaj, Iran International reports. Karaj is said to be a critical node in Iran’s nuclear program, primarily as a high-tech manufacturing hub for centrifuge components used in uranium enrichment.

Shipping impact

• Cosco Shipping: Officially suspended new booking services for "relevant routes" effective immediately on 4 March. The company has instructed vessels currently in the Gulf to seek safe anchorage while assessing contingency plans, which may include discharging cargo at alternative hubs.
• MSC (Mediterranean Shipping Co.): The world’s largest container line has suspended all worldwide bookings to the Middle East until further notice. MSC also declared "End of Voyage" for all shipments currently bound for Arabian Gulf ports, meaning cargo will be discharged at the next safe port at the customer's expense.
• Maersk: Suspended all new bookings between the Indian subcontinent and Upper Gulf markets (UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia). It is also rerouting all ME11 and MECL services around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days to transit times.
• CMA CGM: Introduced an Emergency Conflict Surcharge (ECS) of up to USD 4,000 per container. It has suspended all reefer (refrigerated) bookings for the region and paused transits through the Suez Canal and Red Sea.
• Hapag-Lloyd: Implemented a War Risk Surcharge (WRS) effective 2nd of March and is rerouting its IMX service around Africa.

CASUALTIES & IMPACT

Casualty figures vary by source and remain fluid.

• US: The official US military death toll stands at six confirmed fatalities. All six were killed on 1 March in a drone attack on a command centre at Port Shuaiba, Kuwait.
• Iran: Reported totals vary significantly. HRANA reported at least 1,097 civilian deaths and over 5,400 injured as of the afternoon of 3 March. Iran’s Red Crescent reported 787 deaths as of 3 March. HRANA documented at least 12 military personnel killed in a 24-hour period leading into 3 March, with overall military totals unverified.
• Lebanon: At least 50 deaths reported as of early March 4th, over 335 people have been injured in the past two days.
• Israel: 10–11 killed.
• Oman: 1 killed (on a tanker off the coast).
• Bahrain: 1 killed (worker hit by missile debris).
• UAE: 3 killed.
• Kuwait: 2 soldiers and 1 civilian killed.

INTERNATIONAL UPDATES

• US: Senate to vote Wednesday on a Democratic-led Iran war powers resolution. The measure, primarily authored by Senator Tim Kaine (D-Va.), seeks to require President Trump to terminate hostilities against Iran within a set period (typically 30 days) unless Congress explicitly authorizes the war. Even if the resolution passes both the House and Senate, it is widely expected that President Trump will veto it. While a veto is likely, the margin of the vote will signal the level of domestic appetite for a prolonged "broad wave" campaign.
• UK: President Trump publicly expressed frustration with UK PM Starmer, stating "I'm not happy with the UK" and "This is not Winston Churchill that we're dealing with," after Britain refused to join offensive strikes.
• France: Macron ordered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle redeployed to the Mediterranean and said France was reinforcing regional defensive posture (jets/air defence/radar assets). French Foreign Minister also suggested that French fighter jets neutralised Iranian drones over UAE.
• Spain: Reports confirmed Spain remains the only European government to officially condemn the initial US-Israel attack.
• Germany: President Trump hosted German Chancellor Merz at the White House on Tuesday to discuss the conflict and defensive posture.
• China: Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Israeli counterpart that the attacks occurred just as negotiations with Washington had made "significant progress". Beijing demanded an immediate halt to all joint strikes.
• Russia: Foreign Minister Lavrov stated there is "no sign" Tehran is seeking a nuclear bomb, directly challenging the Western justification for the strikes.

MARKETS

• Oil: Oil extended gains as renewed Middle East attacks and halted traffic through the Strait offset a US plan to insure and potentially escort tankers. Brent approached USD 84/bbl having risen by over 10% in the last two days, the largest increase since 2020. Analysts at Goldman Sachs said Brent could reach USD 100/bbl if the Strait remains closed for five+ weeks.
• Gas: Asian LNG spot prices rose to USD 25.40/MMBtu, the highest since 2023, after Middle East conflict halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and forced a shutdown at Qatar’s largest export plant; prices have more than doubled vs last week, with further increases expected while supply disruptions persist, BBG said.
• Gold: Gold rose to around USD 5,150/oz as dip-buyers entered the market after bullion prices briefly dipped below USD 5,000/oz on Tuesday. The WSJ cited some analysts who said gold prices could face headwinds as rising energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict prompts investors to reprice expectations for Fed rate cuts, strengthening the USD and lifting bond yields, potentially limiting gains despite safe-haven demand.
• FX: Demand for USD funding has been increasing in the cross-currency swaps market as the Middle East conflict weighs on global risk appetite; the price action signals higher demand for USD vs currencies including the CHF, EUR and GBP, Bloomberg writes.
• Equities: APAC stocks extended losses with markets roiled by the widening conflict in the Middle East. KOSPI saw a double-digit percentage drop and had triggered a circuit breaker with declines led by shipbuilders and shipping firms, while large exporters such as Samsung, SK Hynix and Hyundai Motor also suffered. US equity futures are subdued. European equities edge higher after initial indecision.
• Fed Pricing: Money markets have this week seen lowered expectations for Fed rate cuts as the conflict raises concerns about renewed inflation driven by higher oil prices, making it difficult for policymakers to lower rates.