[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 40: Two-week ceasefire announced as US-Iran talks move to Islamabad this Friday

MAIN POINTS:

US President Trump announced he is to suspend the bombing of Iran for two weeks, subject to Iran opening up the Strait of Hormuz, and said this will be a double-sided ceasefire.
US President Trump said the US and Iran are very far along with a definitive agreement concerning long-term peace with Iran and peace in the Middle East, and confirmed they received a 10-point proposal from Iran, which they believe is a workable basis for negotiation.
Iran accepted Pakistan’s two-week ceasefire proposal, with the ceasefire approved by the Supreme Leader, and said talks with the US will begin in Islamabad on Friday, April 10th.
White House senior official said Israel is part of the 2-week ceasefire and agreed to suspend bombing whilst talks are ongoing, although later reports said Israeli PM Netanyahu backs Trump’s ceasefire, but Lebanon is not included.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said if attacks against Iran are halted, Iran’s armed forces will cease their defensive operations, while safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible for two weeks via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces.
Oil fell after the ceasefire announcement, while Asian markets moved higher.

US President Trump announced he is to suspend the bombing of Iran for two weeks, subject to Iran opening up the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump said this will be a double-sided ceasefire.
Trump said the reason for doing so is that the US has already met and exceeded all military objectives.
Trump said the US is very far along with a definitive agreement concerning long-term peace with Iran and peace in the Middle East.
Trump confirmed the US received a 10-point proposal from Iran and believes it is a workable basis on which to negotiate.
Trump said almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the US and Iran.
Trump said the two-week period will allow the agreement to be finalised and consummated.
Trump posted: “A big day for World Peace! Iran wants it to happen; they’ve had enough! Likewise, so has everyone else!”
Trump posted that the US will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump posted: “There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made.”
Trump posted that Iran can start the reconstruction process and that this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East.
Trump told AFP that the Iran deal is a complete and comprehensive victory for the US.
Trump said Iran’s uranium will be perfectly taken care of.
Trump said he believes China got Iran to negotiate.
Trump said the US had won a “total and complete victory”.

IRAN

Iran accepted Pakistan’s two-week ceasefire proposal, with the ceasefire approved by the Supreme Leader.
Iran said negotiations with the US will be held in Islamabad to finalise details.
Iran said talks are to begin on Friday, April 10th and may be extended if both sides agree.
Iranian officials said the negotiations could last up to 15 days, during which Tehran seeks to translate battlefield gains into political agreements.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said that if attacks against Iran are halted, Iran’s powerful armed forces will cease their defensive operations.
Araghchi added that for a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council confirmed the ceasefire but said this does not mean the war is over.
Iran’s Supreme Security Council said fingers are on the trigger and as soon as the enemy makes the slightest mistake, it will be answered with full force.

IRAN'S 10-POINT PLAN

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said Iran forced the US to accept its 10-point plan as the basis for negotiations.
Iran’s statement said the plan includes US commitments on non-aggression, continuation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, acceptance of enrichment, lifting of sanctions, termination of Security Council and Board of Governors resolutions, payment of damages, withdrawal of American combat forces from the region, and cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon.
Iran’s statement said negotiations in Islamabad will last up to a maximum of 15 days after finalisation of battlefield gains in political terms.
Trump later called the Iranian Supreme National Security Council statement claiming victory a “fraud” and instead pointed to Araghchi’s shorter statement.
Iranian media continues to paint the ceasefire as an Iranian victory.

CEASEFIRE TERMS

White House senior official said Israel is part of the 2-week ceasefire and agreed to suspend bombing whilst talks are ongoing.
US official said the Iran ceasefire takes effect once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.
Israel’s Ynet cited security sources saying the Iran ceasefire will also include Lebanon.
It was later reported that Israeli PM Netanyahu said he backs Trump’s ceasefire, but Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire.
Netanyahu’s office said Israel supports President Trump’s decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks, subject to Iran immediately opening the straits and stopping all attacks on the US, Israel and countries in the region.

PAKISTAN

Pakistan’s PM said diplomatic efforts for the peaceful settlement of the ongoing war had progressed steadily.
Pakistan’s PM requested that US President Trump extend the Iran deadline for two weeks.
Pakistan’s PM requested that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz for a corresponding period of two weeks as a goodwill gesture.
Pakistan offered to host talks between the US and Iran, beginning on Friday in Islamabad.

HORMUZ

Iran agreed to permit safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for the duration of the ceasefire in coordination with Iran’s armed forces.
Iran and Oman will be allowed to charge for passage in the Strait of Hormuz as part of the ceasefire.
Only about 5% of pre-war shipping volume had been getting through Hormuz before the ceasefire.
Maritime Shipping Data shows traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains light and limited.
The US will help with the traffic buildup in Hormuz, though no detailed mechanism was given.
Shipowners are assessing the terms of the US-Iran ceasefire, which could temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allow more than 800 vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf to leave, Bloomberg reports. The waterway has been largely closed since late February after US and Israeli strikes prompted Iran to tighten control, severely disrupting traffic and energy supplies. Petronas said a vessel chartered by one of its units, carrying Iraqi crude, passed through the Strait of Hormuz and is heading to its refinery in Pengerang, Johor.

ON THE GROUND

Missile attacks were reported across the Gulf region and Israel shortly after Trump announced the ceasefire.
US official said the ceasefire would begin Tuesday evening, but it may take time for orders to reach Revolutionary Guard units at the field level.
Iranian media reported that the Supreme Leader has ordered units to cease launches.
Sirens sounded in Bahrain hours after the ceasefire announcement.

MARKETS

Energy prices plummeted. Crude futures both tumbled beneath the USD 100/bbl level following the announcement of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire within a couple of hours prior to President Trump's deadline.
- WTI May'26 -15%
- Brent Jun'26 -13%
- Dutch TTF -18%
APAC stocks rallied.
- ASX 200 +2.6%
- Nikkei 225+5.6%
- Shanghai +2.4%
- Hang Seng +3.0%
European equity futures indicate a stellar open for the cash market with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up over 5%.
- Euro Stoxx 50 Jun'26 +5.3%
- DAX 40 Jun'26 +5.3%
- FTSE 100 +3.0%
US equity futures surged following US President Trump's ceasefire announcement.
- ES Jun'26 +2.5%
- NQ Jun'26 +3.2%
- YM Jun'26 +2.3%
- RTY Jun'26 +3.6%
DXY was pressured amid the broad heightened risk appetite.
- DXY -0.7%
- EUR/USD +0.8%
- USD/JPY -0.8%
Debt futures surged as crude slipped.
- UST Jun'26 +23 ticks
- Bund Jun'26 +160 ticks
- JGB Jun'26 +20 ticks
Crypto saw modest upticks overnight.
- BTC ~USD 72,000
- ETH ~USD 2,250