[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 49: Awaiting reports on US-Iran meeting as ceasefire expires next week

US-IRAN TALKS

• US President Trump said they are making a lot of progress on Iran and he is not sure the ceasefire needs to be extended.
• Trump added that Iran is willing to do things today they previously were not, and that the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is holding up well.
• Trump said the next meeting with Iran may take place over the weekend, and it is looking very good that a deal will be made with Iran, but added that if there is no deal with Iran, fighting will resume.
• Trump stated that they have a very powerful statement that Iran will not have nuclear weapons, which goes beyond 20 years, and that Iran agreed they will not have a nuclear weapon.
• Trump also said he would extend the ceasefire if he has to, that Iran has agreed to almost everything, and that if an Iran deal is signed in Islamabad, he might go.
• Trump said the Iran war is going “swimmingly” and should be ending pretty soon, while adding that they are going to see some incredible results.
• A Pakistani source involved in US-Iran mediation said there was progress in backdoor diplomacy and that an upcoming meeting between the two sides could result in the signing of an agreement.
• The source added the two sides would first sign an MoU, followed by a comprehensive agreement within 60 days.
• A diplomatic source said Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir had been holding talks in Tehran since Wednesday and had made a breakthrough on “sticky issues”.
• Two Iranian sources said there were signs of a compromise on the Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) stockpile, with Tehran considering shipping part of it out of the country.
• US officials said a Reuters report that US and Iranian negotiators have scaled back ambitions for a comprehensive deal is not true.
• It was separately reported that Gulf and European officials see the US needing 6 months for an Iran deal.
• US Senator Graham said he is “confident” the US will not extend its ceasefire with Iran beyond next week’s deadline after speaking with President Trump on Wednesday night.

LEBANON / ISRAEL

• US President Trump said he had excellent conversations with Lebanon’s President Aoun and Israeli PM Netanyahu, while announcing that the leaders agreed to formally begin a 10-day ceasefire from 17:00 EDT on Thursday.
• Trump also posted that he will be inviting Israeli PM Netanyahu and Lebanese President Aoun to the White House for the first meaningful talks between Israel and Lebanon.
• US State Department said the initial period of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire may be extended by mutual agreement if progress is demonstrated in negotiations.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said he agreed to a temporary ten-day ceasefire in Lebanon, but has not agreed to Hezbollah’s demand to withdraw from southern Lebanon.
• Netanyahu added Israel will remain in Lebanon with an extensive security zone up to the Syrian border.
• Israel launched airstrikes on southern Lebanon minutes before the ceasefire, while Lebanon's army noted intermittent shelling on southern Lebanese villages after the ceasefire took effect.
• Israeli security official said the military has no plans to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon during a ceasefire.
• The Israeli military said forces remain stationed in southern Lebanon following the ceasefire and urged residents not to move south of the Litani River.
• An Israeli senior official said the Trump administration intends to actively be part of efforts by the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah and is prepared to use American resources to achieve this goal.
• Hezbollah source said as long as the occupation remains on their land, Lebanon and its people have the right to resist by all means to force its withdrawal.
• Iran welcomed the ceasefire in Lebanon and said it was part of the Iran-US ceasefire understanding mediated by Pakistan.
• Iran also stressed the need for full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker said the ceasefire was nothing but a result of Hezbollah's steadfastness and the unity of the Axis of Resistance, while adding they will deal with this ceasefire with caution and remain together until the full realisation of victory.
• Trump posted: “I hope Hezbollah acts nicely and well during this important period of time. It will be an GREAT moment for them if they do. No more killing. Must finally have PEACE!”
• Reports also noted Israeli shelling on the town of Kunin, a major explosion and demolition of homes and tents in southern Lebanon, while another report said Israeli forces targeted an ambulance team in south Lebanon.

SHIPPING

• US CENTCOM said USS Abraham Lincoln is transiting the Arabian Sea and that no vessels were violating the blockade so far.
• French President Macron and UK PM Starmer are to hold a summit on a plan to secure the Strait of Hormuz and are expected to brief US President Trump after the meeting.
• A source told Al-Mayadeen that starting Friday at noon (10:00 BST), anyone wishing to cross Bab al-Mandab should be more vigilant than ever before in all six directions, while other reports said the warning was made by a resistance commander.

OTHER

• US intelligence detected signs China was weighing giving Iran advanced radar systems in the days after the Iran war began.