[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 60: Trump sceptical of Iran Hormuz offer as nuclear issue remains unresolved

OVERVIEW

• US President Trump is reportedly unlikely to accept Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, with US officials concerned it would set aside the nuclear issue and remove key US leverage.
• US-Iran diplomacy is still active, with some reports suggesting both sides are not as far apart as they appear and that the first stage of any deal could focus on reopening Hormuz without restrictions or fees.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Iran’s oil industry is starting to shut in under the US blockade and warned that “pumping will soon collapse”.
• An ADNOC LNG tanker crossed the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the Iran war, according to ship-tracking data.
• Iran’s Supreme National Security Council is reportedly concerned that protests and the economic crisis could become a serious problem, with Iran unable to withstand 6–8 weeks of naval blockade, Iran International reported.

US-IRAN TALKS

• US President Trump is unlikely to accept Iran’s plan, according to CNN citing sources, as reopening the strait without resolving nuclear issues could remove a key piece of US leverage.
• US President Trump has told advisers he is not satisfied with Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, NYT reported, with a US official saying accepting it could appear to deny Trump a victory.
• US President Trump is reportedly sceptical of Iran’s Strait of Hormuz proposal, WSJ reported, although the White House will continue negotiations and is expected to provide a response and counterproposals in the coming days.
• US and Iran are not as far apart as they seem, CNN reported, with the first part of a potential agreement focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz without restrictions or fees, while nuclear issues would be addressed later.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said the Iran offer is better than expected, direct communication with Iran remains rare and discreet, and the level of sanctions and pressure on Iran is extraordinary.
• White House Press Secretary Leavitt said Iran’s proposal is being discussed, but would not say whether the US is considering it, adding that Trump will "comment soon".
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi reportedly proposed negotiations with Washington that did not initially include the nuclear issue.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi told Russian President Putin that US “destructive habits”, “unreasonable demands” and frequent changes in position are slowing diplomatic progress.
• Pakistan’s representative to the UN said Pakistan is continuing diplomatic efforts to resolve the US-Iran crisis.
• Israeli Channel 12 reported that decisive days are approaching regarding the future of negotiations with Iran.

HORMUZ

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Iran’s oil industry is starting to shut in production due to the US blockade, adding that “pumping will soon collapse”.
• ADNOC LNG tanker crossed the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the Iran war, according to ship-tracking data.
• US CENTCOM said guided-missile destroyer USS Rafael Peralta enforced the US blockade of Iranian ports against M/T Stream after it attempted to sail to an Iranian port on 26 April.
• The US representative to the UN said Iran has no right to control the Strait of Hormuz to serve its nuclear projects.
• French Foreign Minister said the Strait of Hormuz is not private property and neither Iran nor any other party can impose fees on passage through it.
• Iran Foreign Ministry spokesman said the US must be held accountable over the seizure of oil ships.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent warned that businesses working with Iranian airlines risk sanctions, with Treasury maintaining maximum pressure on Iran.