[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 63: US frames conflict as “terminated” for War Powers Resolution while strike decisions loom

OVERVIEW

• The Trump administration is arguing hostilities have “terminated” under the War Powers Resolution due to the ceasefire, avoiding the need for congressional approval.
• Trump signalled uncertainty on next steps, saying a deal may or may not be needed, while maintaining zero tolerance for a nuclear-armed Iran.
• CENTCOM has already briefed Trump on strike options, with a decision expected within days.
• Negotiations remain stalled, with rising expectations of collapse and potential escalation.

WAR POWERS

• A senior US official said hostilities that began on Feb 28 have been “terminated” for War Powers purposes due to the ceasefire.
• This allows the administration to bypass the 60-day deadline requiring congressional approval or withdrawal.
• The Senate recently rejected efforts to limit Trump’s war powers, reinforcing executive flexibility.
• The War Powers Resolution requires:
  • Notification within 48 hours of military action
  • A 60-day limit without congressional approval
  • A 30-day withdrawal window
• Historically, enforcement has been weak, and presidents have bypassed it.

US POSITION

• Trump said Iran is “dying to make a deal,” but reiterated Iran can never have nuclear weapons.
• Trump said a deal may not be necessary, then said a deal might be needed, and also reaffirmed the zero enrichment / no nuclear capability requirement.
• Trump stated Iran’s drone and missile infrastructure is heavily degraded, and the country is in “very bad shape”.
• He said the ceasefire may or may not be broken depending on developments.
• A decision on next steps is expected in the coming days (NBC).
• CENTCOM Commander Cooper already delivered a 45-minute briefing on strike options (Axios).

DIPLOMACY

• Pakistani mediators expect a revised Iranian proposal by the end of the week.
• Iran signalled talks will be slow and uncertain, rejecting expectations of a quick resolution.
• Iran President Pezeshkian and Ghalibaf are dissatisfied with the way Foreign Minister Araghchi is advancing diplomacy, especially the nuclear negotiations, and are calling for his dismissal, according to Iran International, citing sources.
• Israel expects negotiations to fail, potentially within a week (Channel 12 / Iran International).
• US may allow Israel to strike Iranian energy infrastructure if talks collapse (Channel 12 via Al Arabiya).

IRAN POSITION

• Iran warned it must prepare for “any eventuality” amid stalled diplomacy.
• Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a defiant stance, suggesting US ships belong “at the bottom” of the Gulf and Iran will defend its nuclear and missile capabilities.
• Air defences were activated in Tehran against drones and micro-aircraft (Tasnim).

LEBANON

• Fighting continues between Israel and Hezbollah despite the ceasefire conditions.
• Israeli military confirmed casualties during clashes in southern Lebanon.