[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 69: Iran is expected to respond to the US proposal via mediators on Thursday

OVERVIEW

• US President Trump is optimistic about a framework, and Iran is expected to respond to the US proposal via mediators on Thursday.
• Trump said Iran wants to negotiate and reiterated the US will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon or keep enriched uranium.
• Axios reported Trump could still turn to military action without an agreement before his China trip.
• Israel struck Beirut for the first time since the Lebanon ceasefire, reportedly eliminating Hezbollah’s Radwan Force commander.

US / IRAN TALKS

• US President Trump said the US is doing well in Iran, that Iran wants to make a deal and negotiate, and that the US will be able to get enriched uranium from Iran.
• Fox reported Trump is optimistic about the Iran framework, with a timeframe of one week.
• Iran is expected to provide its reply to the US proposal for ending the war to mediators on Thursday, CNN reported citing a regional source.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said Iran’s response to the US has not yet been presented to Pakistan.
• Arab and US officials said Trump’s frequent insults toward Iranian leaders may complicate efforts to end the war, Politico reported.
• US President Trump could turn to military action without an agreement with Iran ahead of the China trip, Axios reported citing US officials.

CURRENT US RED LINES

• WSJ editorial said, from its discussions with senior officials, current US red lines in the talks include Iran confirming it does not seek nuclear weapons; the dismantlement of Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan; a ban on underground nuclear work; and on-demand inspections with penalties for violations.
• WSJ said the US seeks a 20-year moratorium on Iranian uranium enrichment and demands the handover of all enriched nuclear material.
• WSJ said Iran would have to reopen the Strait of Hormuz gradually as the US relaxes its blockade, before a full reopening under a final deal.
• WSJ said most US sanctions relief would likely be tied to Iran’s implementation of a deal rather than merely signing it, although some assets could initially be unfrozen.

WHAT A GOOD DEAL FOR THE US WOULD LOOK LIKE

The WSJ opinion piece details what a 'good deal' looks like for the US:

• Require the dismantlement of all Iranian nuclear facilities, centrifuges, manufacturing capabilities and plutonium-related infrastructure.
• Iran’s stockpiles of 20% and lower enriched uranium should also be removed or diluted, warning they could still provide a basis to restart a nuclear programme.
• The IAEA should have unrestricted access to any suspected nuclear-related sites, including military locations, with immediate inspections and potentially permanent inspection teams based in Iran.
• Iran should fully disclose its past nuclear work so the IAEA can verify and re-establish continuity of knowledge.
• A final Hormuz agreement should ban Iranian tolls, mines and forced shipping routes, restoring unrestricted freedom of navigation.
• Sanctions relief should remain tied to Iranian behaviour and compliance, while terrorism and human-rights sanctions could remain in place until Iran changes its conduct.
• The editorial warned Iran’s strategy is likely to focus on delay, ambiguity and resistance to core US red lines.

SHIPPING

• Trump’s reversal on Project Freedom came after Saudi Arabia suspended US access to its bases and airspace for the operation, NBC reported citing US officials.
• Iran issued a message to commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, saying Iran’s port is fully prepared to provide general maritime services and support, IRNA reported.
• US CENTCOM said US forces in the Gulf of Oman disabled an Iranian-flagged unladen oil tanker attempting to sail toward an Iranian port at 09:00EDT on 6 May.
• Iran denied its armed forces struck a South Korean ship in the Strait of Hormuz, AFP reported.
• CMA CGM Saigon container ship was sailing along the Omani coast after exiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to vessel tracking.

ISRAEL / LEBANON

• Israel struck Beirut, with reports saying the commander of Hezbollah’s Radwan Force was eliminated in an Israeli airstrike.
• Four Israeli soldiers were injured in a drone attack in southern Lebanon, according to the IDF.