[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 69: Iran is expected to respond to the US proposal via mediators on Thursday

OVERVIEW

US President Trump is optimistic about a framework, and Iran is expected to respond to the US proposal via mediators on Thursday.
Trump said Iran wants to negotiate and reiterated the US will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon or keep enriched uranium.
Axios reported Trump could still turn to military action without an agreement before his China trip.
Israel struck Beirut for the first time since the Lebanon ceasefire, reportedly eliminating Hezbollah’s Radwan Force commander.

US President Trump said the US is doing well in Iran, that Iran wants to make a deal and negotiate, and that the US will be able to get enriched uranium from Iran.
Fox reported Trump is optimistic about the Iran framework, with a timeframe of one week.
Iran is expected to provide its reply to the US proposal for ending the war to mediators on Thursday, CNN reported citing a regional source.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said Iran’s response to the US has not yet been presented to Pakistan.
Arab and US officials said Trump’s frequent insults toward Iranian leaders may complicate efforts to end the war, Politico reported.
US President Trump could turn to military action without an agreement with Iran ahead of the China trip, Axios reported citing US officials.

CURRENT US RED LINES

WSJ editorial said, from its discussions with senior officials, current US red lines in the talks include Iran confirming it does not seek nuclear weapons; the dismantlement of Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan; a ban on underground nuclear work; and on-demand inspections with penalties for violations.
WSJ said the US seeks a 20-year moratorium on Iranian uranium enrichment and demands the handover of all enriched nuclear material.
WSJ said Iran would have to reopen the Strait of Hormuz gradually as the US relaxes its blockade, before a full reopening under a final deal.
WSJ said most US sanctions relief would likely be tied to Iran’s implementation of a deal rather than merely signing it, although some assets could initially be unfrozen.

WHAT A GOOD DEAL FOR THE US WOULD LOOK LIKE

The WSJ opinion piece details what a 'good deal' looks like for the US:

Require the dismantlement of all Iranian nuclear facilities, centrifuges, manufacturing capabilities and plutonium-related infrastructure.
Iran’s stockpiles of 20% and lower enriched uranium should also be removed or diluted, warning they could still provide a basis to restart a nuclear programme.
The IAEA should have unrestricted access to any suspected nuclear-related sites, including military locations, with immediate inspections and potentially permanent inspection teams based in Iran.
Iran should fully disclose its past nuclear work so the IAEA can verify and re-establish continuity of knowledge.
A final Hormuz agreement should ban Iranian tolls, mines and forced shipping routes, restoring unrestricted freedom of navigation.
Sanctions relief should remain tied to Iranian behaviour and compliance, while terrorism and human-rights sanctions could remain in place until Iran changes its conduct.
The editorial warned Iran’s strategy is likely to focus on delay, ambiguity and resistance to core US red lines.

Trump’s reversal on Project Freedom came after Saudi Arabia suspended US access to its bases and airspace for the operation, NBC reported citing US officials.
Iran issued a message to commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, saying Iran’s port is fully prepared to provide general maritime services and support, IRNA reported.
US CENTCOM said US forces in the Gulf of Oman disabled an Iranian-flagged unladen oil tanker attempting to sail toward an Iranian port at 09:00EDT on 6 May.
Iran denied its armed forces struck a South Korean ship in the Strait of Hormuz, AFP reported.
CMA CGM Saigon container ship was sailing along the Omani coast after exiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to vessel tracking.

Israel struck Beirut, with reports saying the commander of Hezbollah’s Radwan Force was eliminated in an Israeli airstrike.
Four Israeli soldiers were injured in a drone attack in southern Lebanon, according to the IDF.