[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 74: Trump weighs military option again as US-Iran talks remain deadlocked

OVERVIEW

• Trump said Iran’s proposal was unacceptable and warned the ceasefire is “on life support”.
• US officials said military action against Iran is back on the table after negotiations stalled.
• Iran reiterated that enrichment is not negotiable and rejected transferring enriched uranium outside the country.
• An Iranian parliamentary spokesperson said one option in the event of another attack could be 90% uranium enrichment.
• US and Iranian officials remain split over Hormuz, uranium enrichment and reparations.

US / IRAN TALKS

• Trump said he has a plan on Iran and repeated that Tehran’s proposal is unacceptable.
• Trump said the US blockade on Iran was part of “military genius”.
• Trump said the ceasefire is unbelievably weak and “on life support”, although a diplomatic solution is still possible.
• Axios reported Trump met with his national security team to discuss options including possible renewed military action against Iran.
• US officials said Trump still wants a deal, but Iran’s refusal to make major nuclear concessions has put the military option back on the table.
• Two US officials said Trump is leaning toward some form of military action to increase pressure on Iran.
• One US official said, “He will tune them up a bit”, while another said, “I think we all know where this is going”.
• US officials said Trump is unlikely to authorise military action before returning from China later this week.
• CNN reported some Trump aides are pushing for targeted strikes to weaken Tehran further, while others still want diplomacy given more time.
• White House Deputy Press Secretary Kelly said Trump is not in a rush and all options remain on the table.
• Al Hadath reported the US was close to resuming attacks on Iran last week before Trump was persuaded to pause.
• Israeli broadcaster reported discussions are underway with the US regarding resuming the fight against Iran.
• Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said there is no alternative but to accept Iran’s rights under the 14-point proposal.
• Ghalibaf said Iran’s armed forces are ready to respond to any aggression and “we are open to all options”.
• Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said any Hormuz proposal that ignores the blockade, aggression and Iran’s security rights is “biased and doomed to failure”.
• Iran’s National Security Commission spokesperson said nuclear technology is not on the agenda for negotiations and enrichment is not negotiable.
• Iran said its nuclear activities are peaceful and preparations have been made to protect nuclear facilities and assets.
• Al Jazeera reported Iran is prepared to dilute highly enriched uranium to 3.7% and 20% under IAEA supervision.
• Iran refused to transfer uranium outside the country, while Washington rejected reparations for war losses.
• Tasnim reported enriched nuclear material will not be transferred outside Iran.
• A source close to Iran’s negotiating team denied reports that Tehran accepted removal of enriched nuclear material from the country.
• Iran reportedly set a specific deadline in its proposal for the release of blocked Iranian funds.
• Pakistan’s ambassador to Russia said he does not believe the US will launch another military operation against Iran.

SANCTIONS / REGIONAL

• The US issued fresh Iran-related sanctions targeting 12 individuals and entities tied to Iranian oil shipments to China.
• US Treasury sanctions included entities based in Hong Kong and the UAE.
• WSJ reported the UAE secretly carried out military strikes on Iran, including an alleged strike on a refinery on Lavan Island in early April.
• US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz said security cooperation between Israel and several Middle Eastern countries, especially the UAE, has expanded.
• An Israeli newspaper cited Waltz as saying Israel provided the Iron Dome system to the UAE.
• CBS reported Pakistan quietly allowed Iranian military aircraft to park on its airfields during the conflict - Pakistan denied this.

ISRAEL / LEBANON

• Israeli Navy shelled the Khan Yunis coast.
• Israel conducted airstrikes on multiple towns in southern Lebanon, according to Noor News and Al Jazeera.
• Hezbollah said it targeted a Merkava tank in Bayada with a guided missile and claimed the tank was seen burning.