[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 75: Trump warns Iran will be “decimated” as Hormuz tensions persist

OVERVIEW

• Trump said Iran will either make a deal or be “decimated”, while reaffirming the effectiveness of the blockade.
• Iran reiterated five conditions before entering nuclear talks, including sanctions relief, reparations and recognition of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
• US intelligence reportedly assessed Iran still retains significant missile capabilities along the Strait of Hormuz.
• Fars reported Iran will not enter a second round of talks without five confidence-building measures being fulfilled.

US / IRAN TALKS

• Trump said the US will only make a “good deal” regarding Iran and that he will discuss the Iran war extensively with Chinese President Xi.
• Trump said Pakistan has been “great” and added that “good things will happen” during the China trip.
• Trump said he does not need Xi’s help on Iran and that the blockade has been effective.
• Trump said Iran will either “do the right thing” or the US will “finish the job”, while warning Iran will either make a deal or be “decimated”.
• Trump posted that media reports suggesting Iran is doing well militarily amount to “virtual TREASON”.
• NBC reported the Pentagon is considering renaming the Iran war “Sledgehammer” if the ceasefire collapses.
• NYT reported US intelligence assesses Iran still retains missile sites and launchers, including operational access to 30 of 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz.
• US House and Senate Democrats are expected to hold Iran war powers votes this week.
• Sources familiar with negotiations said Iran’s top conditions before nuclear talks include ending the war on all fronts, lifting sanctions, releasing frozen funds, compensation for war damages and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
• Fars reported Iran will not enter a second round of talks without five confidence-building measures being fulfilled.
• Iran reportedly told Pakistani mediators the continued naval blockade after the ceasefire reinforced Tehran’s distrust of negotiations with the US.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said US dishonesty and lack of good faith remain the main obstacle to ending the war.
• Araghchi said the situation in the Strait of Hormuz was caused by US and Israeli military aggression and the continued blockade of Iranian ports.
• Araghchi said Iran is drafting regulations concerning arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz in accordance with international law.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry advisor Ali Safri said Iran’s current focus is ending the war and that Tehran realised the US wants surrender rather than negotiations.
• Safri added Iran “cannot surrender to America”.

SHIPPING

• US CENTCOM said forces prevented a Malta-flagged tanker from crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
• Tanker Trackers reported Iran has not successfully exported any crude oil by sea over the past 28 days.
• Pakistan and Iraq reportedly struck agreements with Iran to transport liquefied gas and oil via the Strait of Hormuz despite shipping risks.
• China urged Pakistan to intensify mediation efforts between the US and Iran.
• Shipping data reportedly showed a China-flagged supertanker attempting to exit the Strait of Hormuz.
• The UK is to contribute drones, Typhoon jets and HMS Dragon to the multinational mission aimed at securing the Strait of Hormuz.
• The UK mission will also include autonomous mine-hunting systems.

REGIONAL

• Trump and UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed discussed strategic partnership and Middle East developments in a phone call.
• Reuters reported Saudi Arabia carried out undisclosed retaliatory strikes on Iran during the war in late March.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry rejected Kuwaiti claims regarding alleged hostile Iranian actions against Kuwait.
• Iran said four Iranians detained by Kuwait entered Kuwaiti waters accidentally during a routine naval patrol due to navigation disruption.