[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 86: Trump says deal close as Axios reports 60-day ceasefire framework

OVERVIEW

• US President Trump posted on Saturday that the “final aspects and details” of a US-Iran deal are being discussed and will be announced shortly.
• Axios reported the draft agreement includes a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening Hormuz with no tolls, Iran clearing mines, and the US lifting its blockade on Iranian ports.
• Iran urged caution, saying disputes between the sides have narrowed but issues still need to be discussed through mediators.
• Fars pushed back on Trump’s claims, saying Hormuz will remain under Iranian management and will not return to its pre-war state.

POTENTIAL DEAL FRAMEWORK VIA AXIOS

KEY POINTS

• Axios reported the US and Iran are close to signing an agreement involving a 60-day ceasefire extension.
• The draft MoU would last 60 days and could be extended by mutual consent.
• The US official said Trump’s key principle is “relief for performance”.
• Iran wanted funds unfrozen immediately and permanent sanctions relief, but the US position is that this would only follow tangible concessions.

STRAIT OF HORMUZ

• During the 60-day period, Hormuz would reopen with no tolls.
• Iran would agree to clear mines it deployed in the Strait to let ships pass freely.
• In exchange, the US would lift its blockade on Iranian ports.
• The US would issue some sanctions waivers to allow Iran to sell oil freely.
• A US official said the faster Iran clears mines and restores shipping, the faster the blockade will be lifted.

NUCLEAR ISSUES

• The draft includes Iran committing to never pursue nuclear weapons.
• Iran would negotiate over suspension of uranium enrichment and removal of its highly enriched uranium stockpile.
• Iran gave verbal commitments through mediators about the scope of concessions it is willing to make on enrichment suspension and nuclear material.

SANCTIONS RELIEF

• The US would negotiate sanctions relief and unfreezing Iranian funds during the 60-day period.
• Those steps would only be implemented as part of a final agreement that is verifiably implemented.
• US forces mobilised in recent months would remain in the region during the 60-day period and only withdraw if a final deal is reached.

MEDIATION

• Reuters reported Iran and Pakistan submitted a revised proposal to end the conflict to the US.
• A US response is expected by Sunday, according to Pakistani sources cited by Reuters.
• Pakistan’s Foreign Minister said his call with Trump marked a “significant step closer toward regional peace”.

US COMMENTARY

• Trump said an agreement has been largely negotiated between the US, Iran and other countries, subject to finalisation.
• Trump added the Strait of Hormuz will be opened as part of the deal.
• Trump said he had a “very good call” with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Jordan and Bahrain.
• Trump said he also had a separate call with Netanyahu that “went very well”.
• Trump said negotiators are “getting a lot closer” to reaching a deal.
• Trump said he will only sign a deal where the US gets “everything we want”.
• Trump said Iran’s enriched uranium must be “satisfactorily handled”.
• Trump warned: “Either we reach a good deal or I’ll blow them to a thousand hells.”
• US Secretary of State Rubio said work was ongoing and that there could be something to announce soon.

IRANIAN COMMENTARY

IRAN ON NEGOTIATIONS

• Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the trend this week has been towards a reduction in disputes, but issues still need to be discussed through mediators.
• Iran said the latest draft provides a framework and should include the main issues needed to end the war and other essential issues.
• Iran said details would then be discussed over a reasonable 30–60 day timeframe.
• Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan said there were grounds for “conservative optimism” and that a positive step may be taking shape if the other side is committed.

IRAN ON HORMUZ

• Fars said Trump’s suggestion that Hormuz would return to its previous state is “not true”.
• Fars said Iran has agreed to allow ship traffic to return to pre-war levels, but this does not mean a return to pre-war “free passage”.
• Tasnim reported that an initial memorandum between Washington and Tehran could see the US waive sanctions on Iranian oil during negotiations.
• Tasnim reported Hormuz will remain under Iran’s management.
• Tasnim said a 30-day period is proposed to implement measures linked to the US naval blockade. Once the blockade is lifted, Iran would reopen the waterway.
• Iranian officials suggested conditions would not fully return to pre-war norms, even if regular shipping traffic resumes.
• Tehran emphasised its sovereignty over the Strait.

ISRAEL / LEBANON

• Axios said the draft MoU would make clear that the Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon would end.
• Netanyahu reportedly expressed concern about the Lebanon condition during a call with Trump.
• A US official said it would not be a “one-sided ceasefire” and Israel could act if Hezbollah tried to rearm or instigate attacks.
• A US official said: “If Hezbollah behaves, Israel will behave.”

SHIPPING

• Hundreds of British sailors are on standby in Gibraltar for possible mine-clearing operations in Hormuz if a peace agreement is reached.
• RFA Lyme Bay has been loaded with ammunition and mine-hunting sea drones.
• The UK mine-clearing priority would be to clear a transit lane allowing around 700 ships to leave, then a second lane for ships to enter.
• UK officials said clearing the entire Strait could take months or years.