[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 88: US conducts “self-defence” strikes whilst IRGC says it has the right to respond to any US ceasefire breach

OVERVIEW

• US forces conducted “self-defence” strikes in southern Iran targeting missile launch sites and boats allegedly attempting to place mines. CENTCOM said strikes have concluded “for now”.
• Negotiations between Washington and Tehran continued in Doha, with optimism growing that a framework agreement could be reached soon despite remaining disputes.
• Iranian officials continued demanding confidence-building measures before any understanding with the US can move forward.
• Israel escalated operations in Lebanon as officials signalled preparations for broader action against Hezbollah.

US COMMENTARY

• US CENTCOM said US forces conducted self-defence strikes in southern Iran on Monday.
• US strikes targeted missile launch sites and Iranian boats allegedly attempting to emplace mines.
• CENTCOM said strikes have concluded “for now”.
• US President Trump said Iran’s enriched uranium will either be turned over to the US and destroyed or destroyed in place under international supervision.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said negotiations with Iran could take a few days due to disputes over the wording of the agreement.
• Rubio said Trump will make a “good deal or no deal”.
• Rubio said talks were ongoing in Qatar regarding specific language in the initial document.
• Rubio said the Strait of Hormuz “is going to be opened one way or the other”.
• Rubio said US strikes do not preclude diplomacy and that a deal with Iran is still possible within days.
• US envoys Witkoff and Kushner are to visit Israel to discuss a potential agreement with Iran.
• CNN reported disputes over sanctions and nuclear language were delaying finalisation of a deal, although US officials remained optimistic that differences could be resolved.

IRAN COMMENTARY

• Iranian media reported several Iranians were killed in American-Israeli attacks on Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Asharq.
• Iran’s Supreme Leader issued directives for officials regarding wartime economic management and pursuing reparations from enemies.
• Iranian officials were instructed to continue using the Strait of Hormuz as leverage.
• Chairman of Iran’s National Security Committee said there is “no meaning” to an understanding with the US until Washington takes five confidence-building measures.
• Iran’s conditions include ending the war on all fronts, lifting the US blockade, allowing civilian shipping through Hormuz under Iranian arrangements, suspending oil sanctions for 30-60 days and releasing frozen Iranian funds.
• Iranian officials said even if an agreement is reached, it would not end Iran’s broader challenge with the US.
• An Iranian official warned any Israeli attack on Beirut or the southern suburbs could derail diplomacy and ongoing negotiations.
• IRGC senior spokesperson warned Iran’s response to any new aggression would be “more intense, heavier and stronger”.
• The spokesperson added that if war resumes, Iran will prevent oil exports from leaving the region.
• Iranian National Security Committee Chairman said confidence-building measures by the US could form the basis for further steps, but Iran will not compromise on national interests.
• Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei said America will no longer have a safe haven in the Middle East.
• Iran's IRGC said Iran has the right to respond to respond to any US ceasefire breach; have identified hostile aircrafts entering Iran's airspace in the Gulf region and have shot down one MQ-9 drone.
• Iranian official Arasteh said the US will not have a place in the Persian Gulf and that Iran’s armed forces control transit through the Strait of Hormuz, Mehr News reported.

DIPLOMACY

• Nikkei reported the US and Iran were discussing a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz roughly 30 days after a deal is reached.
• Under the proposal, Iran would clear mines from the Strait during a 30-day period and stop collecting transit fees.
• The ceasefire between the US and Iran would reportedly be extended for 60 days under the proposed arrangement.
• Approval from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains critical to any agreement.
• Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei has reportedly not yet approved the agreement.
• Amichai Stein reported both sides were still demanding changes and “upgrades” to the memorandum language.
• Iranian negotiators in Qatar were reportedly trying to bridge disputes including the issue of frozen Iranian funds.
• Al Jazeera reported Qatari mediation led to understandings on Iran’s frozen assets.
• Reports suggested there was a strong likelihood of an agreement announcement on Tuesday.
• IRIB said the claims by Al Arabiya regarding the 14 point MOU between the US and Iran is false and baseless.
• Fox reported intense negotiations over a final agreement had continued in Doha since Monday morning.
• Channel 12 reported significant gaps still remain between Washington and Tehran and the agreement remains far from finalised.

SHIPPING

• Explosions were reported in Bandar Abbas, Sirik and Jask, although Iranian media later said the situation was under control.
• Unofficial IRGC-linked channels claimed fighter jets attacked two boats in Bandar Abbas port and four people were killed.
• CENTCOM accused Iranian boats of attempting to place mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iranian officials continued insisting Hormuz arrangements and shipping rules remain central to negotiations.

ISRAEL / LEBANON

• Israeli PM Netanyahu said he ordered the military to escalate operations in Lebanon to “crush” Hezbollah.
• Israeli Broadcasting Authority reported the Israeli army began mobilising soldiers to intensify operations in Lebanon.
• Israel’s Security Cabinet is due to meet at 19:00 local time (17:00 BST) regarding the situation in Lebanon and Iran.
• Israeli Channel 12 reported Israel decided to launch a major strike against Hezbollah.
• Axios reported a senior US official hinted Washington would support an Israeli escalation against Hezbollah.