[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 91: Ceasefire memorandum reportedly agreed but downplayed by Iran

OVERVIEW

• US and Iranian officials continued exchanging proposals as negotiations remained focused on uranium enrichment, stockpiles and ceasefire arrangements.
• Reuters echoed Axios reports that a US-Iran memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire by 60 days had been reached, although Trump still needed to approve it.
• Iranian sources pushed back on reports that a final memorandum had been completed, saying the text remains unfinished.
• Reports overnight suggested exchanges of fire, drone interceptions and conflicting claims regarding US military assets.

NEGOTIATIONS

• Reuters echoed Axios' reports yesterday that a memorandum of understanding extending the ceasefire by 60 days had been agreed, pending Trump’s approval.
• Vance said negotiations remain focused on unresolved issues surrounding uranium enrichment and stockpiles.
• Both sides continued exchanging revised proposals and draft language.
• Al Arabiya reported, citing sources, that many points regarding the Iranian nuclear file have been resolved; Iran has agreed to international oversight of its nuclear facilities to prevent their dismantling. Iran wants to transfer the enriched uranium to China with a commitment not to deliver it to America

US

• Vice President Vance said the US and Iran are still exchanging proposals on drafting points, including uranium enrichment.
• Vance said it is too early to know whether an agreement will ultimately be reached.
• Vance said Trump is not yet prepared to endorse any agreement.
• Vance added that significant progress has been made towards a ceasefire arrangement, although disputes remain over enrichment and uranium stockpiles.
• White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller said Trump is personally involved in negotiations with Iran.
• Miller said there is no agreement until all details are finalised.
• Miller reiterated that Trump reserves the option to take military action if required for US national security.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent said Oman confirmed there are no plans to impose transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Secretary of State Rubio is scheduled to meet Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister.

IRAN

• Tasnim reported that claims a US-Iran memorandum had been finalised were inaccurate.
• Iranian sources said the text of any memorandum of understanding remains unfinished and has not been confirmed.

MILITARY

• US President Trump said the US has all the cards and that Iran has been defeated militarily.
• Trump claimed the US completely sank the Iranian Navy and destroyed Iran’s air force.
• Trump said the US deliberately did not target all of Iran’s military leadership to avoid repeating mistakes made in Iraq.
• Iranian state television claimed an American fighter jet had been shot down near Bushehr.
• The US military denied those claims and stated no US aircraft had been shot down, with all air assets accounted for.
• Iranian military sources said a US drone was intercepted near Bushehr.
• Local reports cited by Guy Elster said explosions and exchanges of fire occurred in the Strait of Hormuz.

ISRAEL / LEBANON

• Israel conducted shelling on several towns in southern Lebanon, according to Al Mayadeen.
• Israel's Channel 12, citing military sources, said: "The army recommends to the political leadership intensifying the air and ground strikes in Lebanon".
• Iranian Foreign Ministry said Tehran strongly condemns Israeli aggression against Lebanon, Al Mayadeen reported.