[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 95: Trump sees possible agreement within a week as Lebanon tensions threaten talks

OVERVIEW

• Trump said talks with Iran were continuing at a rapid pace and that he believes an agreement to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached within the next week.
• Iran’s final text is still being discussed in Tehran and no response has been sent yet, Mehr News reported citing sources.
• Lebanon emerged as a major issue, with Iran warning that continued Israeli actions could impact negotiations.

NEGOTIATIONS

• Iran’s final text is still being discussed in Tehran and no response has been sent yet, Mehr News reported citing sources.
• Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said Iran had requested continued Pakistani mediation efforts to support de-escalation and the ceasefire.
• A US source told Al Hadath that Lebanon’s position helped convince Israel not to expand military escalation.
• The source said Washington was working to prevent the collapse of the negotiation track between Lebanon and Israel.
• The source added that negotiations had moved from preliminary contacts to security arrangements.

TRUMP

• US President Trump said talks with Iran were continuing at a rapid pace.
• Trump told ABC News he thinks he will have an agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the next week.
• Trump said a peace agreement with Iran could be better than a military victory.
• Trump said both sides were getting what they need but that a few points still needed to be resolved.
• Trump told NBC News he had not heard from Iran regarding reports that Tehran was suspending talks.
• Trump said “going silent would be very good” and added that the Strait of Hormuz blockade would remain in place.
• Trump said he could “wait as long as they want” because Iran was “losing a fortune”.
• Trump told CNBC he did not care if negotiations with Iran were over.
• Trump said he was not concerned about oil prices despite Iranian media reports that Tehran was threatening to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and halt negotiations.
• Trump said he expected oil prices to fall sharply.
• Trump said he had a very productive call with Netanyahu and that there would be no troops going into Beirut.
• Trump said Hezbollah agreed that all shooting would stop.
• Trump posted that he asked Netanyahu not to carry out a major raid on Beirut and that Netanyahu turned troops around.
• Trump said he also spoke with representatives of Hezbollah and that both sides agreed to stop shooting.
• Axios reported Trump lashed out at Netanyahu over Israel’s escalation in Lebanon during a phone call.

IRAN COMMENTARY

• Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the US bears direct responsibility for violations of the ceasefire with Iran and for ceasefire violations committed by Israel in Lebanon.
• Iran said a violation on one front was equal to violations on all fronts.
• Iran said it would continue using all capabilities and exercise its right to self-defence whenever necessary.
• Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said talks will halt if Israeli actions persist in Lebanon.
• Ghalibaf warned Iran would confront Israel if atrocities in Lebanon continue.
• Supreme Leader adviser Mohsen Rezaei said the Strait of Hormuz was under Iran’s management and that Tehran would not allow the blockade to continue.
• Rezaei warned Iran would not tolerate increased tensions in Lebanon and said the patience of Iran’s armed forces had limits.
• An IRGC commander said Israeli operations in Lebanon and Gaza could lead the resistance axis to equate traffic conditions in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait with those in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran’s Central Military Command warned residents in northern Israel to evacuate if Israel attacks Beirut.
• The IRGC reported targeting a US-owned commercial vessel with a cruise missile, according to Al Jazeera.

ISRAEL / LEBANON

• Israel reportedly planned a major strike in Beirut’s Dahieh district, although the operation was postponed following US intervention, according to Kann News.
• Israeli army will not carry out attacks in Beirut and will not withdraw from its current positions, according to Al Araby citing the official broadcasting authority.
• A Hezbollah lawmaker said the group supports a full ceasefire across all Lebanese territory.
• The lawmaker said a full ceasefire should be followed by a complete Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory.
• AFP, citing a source close to Hezbollah, reported Hezbollah would not stop targeting northern Israel following Israeli threats to strike Beirut’s southern suburbs.
• A source close to Yemen’s Houthis said they would not allow Lebanon to be attacked and Hezbollah to fight alone.
• UN Secretary-General Guterres proposed a new force to replace UNIFIL in southern Lebanon, according to i24's Amichai Stein.