[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 96: US-Iran contacts continue as military exchanges escalate across the Gulf

OVERVIEW

  • Military exchanges escalated across the Gulf, with Iran and the US reporting strikes against each other's assets.
  • US President Trump said reports that US-Iran communications had stopped were false and that conversations had continued continuously.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio said Iran has mined large segments of the Strait of Hormuz, while negotiations remain highly technical and complicated.
  • Lebanon ceasefire talks continued, although key differences remain unresolved.

MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS

  • Explosions were heard near Qeshm Island in Iran.
  • Kuwait said its air defences intercepted hostile missile and drone attacks.
  • Reports stated two US bases in Kuwait were targeted, with explosions reported at Ali al-Salem and Arifjan.
  • Kuwait’s General Civil Aviation Authority said an emergency plan at Kuwait International Airport was activated after Terminal 1 was targeted by Iranian drones and missiles.
  • Air raid sirens sounded in the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
  • Explosions were reported in Saudi Arabia.
  • Explosions were heard in Qamishli, Syria.
  • Earlier reports noted explosions in Iraqi Kurdistan targeting the headquarters of anti-Iranian separatist groups.

US

  • US CENTCOM said Iran launched several ballistic missiles toward neighbouring countries.
  • CENTCOM said US forces defeated multiple Iranian missiles.
  • CENTCOM said US forces conducted self-defence strikes against an Iranian military ground control station on Qeshm Island.
  • CENTCOM said three Iranian one-way attack drones targeting civilian maritime traffic were shot down.
  • CENTCOM denied IRGC claims that Iran successfully struck the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain or a US airbase in the region.
  • CENTCOM said all Iranian attacks on US forces failed.
  • CENTCOM said US aircraft disabled a Botswana-flagged oil tanker attempting to sail toward an Iranian port by striking its engine room with a Hellfire missile.

IRAN

  • IRGC said the US attacked Qeshm Island and that Iran responded with precise and intensive missile strikes on US bases in Kuwait.
  • IRGC warned that any further US aggression would be met with a seismic, crushing and decisive response.
  • IRGC said the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain was attacked by missiles and drones.
  • IRGC said it targeted a US-affiliated vessel named Panaya with missiles.
  • IRGC said the attack was retaliation for the US targeting an IRGC communications tower on Qeshm Island.
  • An Iranian senior political source told Amwaj Media that communication with the US through intermediaries had not stopped.
  • The source said Qatar and other regional intermediaries were working intensively to prevent a renewed escalation linked to Lebanon.
  • Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said Iran would take proportionate measures if Israel continues strikes in Lebanon.

NEGOTIATIONS

  • US President Trump said communications between Washington and Tehran remain ongoing.
  • Trump said reports that Iran and the US stopped speaking were false and that conversations had been ongoing continuously.
  • An Iranian senior political source cited by Amwaj Media said there had been no halt in communications through intermediaries.
  • The source said activity across several diplomatic tracks suggested significant developments could be approaching.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio said nuclear negotiations are highly complicated and technical and will take time.

COMMENTARY

  • Trump said, “Where they lead, one never knows, but as I told Iran, ‘It’s time, one way or another, for you to make a Deal.’”
  • ABC News reported Trump is pushing Iran to make firmer nuclear commitments and wants nuclear concessions in writing.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio said Iran has mined large segments of the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Rubio said the war with Iran has made interactions with Tehran more complicated.
  • Rubio also stated that the “war in Iran is over”.
  • The US issued fresh Iran-related sanctions.

ISRAEL / LEBANON

  • Sky News Arabia, citing a Lebanese source, reported that Israel and Lebanon had not yet reached decisive points regarding a ceasefire.
  • Sources said US forces would train and equip the Lebanese army.
  • An Israeli official said there was American approval for Israeli forces to remain inside the security zone in southern Lebanon.
  • The official added that there were not necessarily restrictions on Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon.
  • Hezbollah said it would not accept a partial ceasefire deal with Israel.
  • Hezbollah carried out a drone strike on an Israeli command post in southern Lebanon, reportedly wounding eight Israeli soldiers.
  • Israeli artillery shelling was reported in the town of Blat in southern Lebanon.
#UNITED STATES#USD#EUR#BAHRAIN#IRAN#ISRAEL#JAPAN#JPY#KUWAIT#LEBANON#QATAR#UNITED KINGDOM#GBP#ASIA#EUROPE#SECRETARY OF STATE#FOREIGN MINISTER#GEOPOLITICAL#FOREX#EQUITIES#ENERGY#METALS#EU SESSION#DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE#HIGHLIGHTED#WTI#BRENT#COMMODITIES#NATURAL GAS#RESEARCH SHEET#GOLD#SILVER#METALS & MINING#MEDIA#MATERIALS (GROUP)#MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT#S&P 500 INDEX#NASDAQ 100 INDEX#BRENT CRUDE#DXY#TRUMP#MARKET ANALYSIS
Published: Updated: