[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 96: US-Iran contacts continue as military exchanges escalate across the Gulf

OVERVIEW

• Military exchanges escalated across the Gulf, with Iran and the US reporting strikes against each other's assets.
• US President Trump said reports that US-Iran communications had stopped were false and that conversations had continued continuously.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said Iran has mined large segments of the Strait of Hormuz, while negotiations remain highly technical and complicated.
• Lebanon ceasefire talks continued, although key differences remain unresolved.

MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS

• Explosions were heard near Qeshm Island in Iran.
• Kuwait said its air defences intercepted hostile missile and drone attacks.
• Reports stated two US bases in Kuwait were targeted, with explosions reported at Ali al-Salem and Arifjan.
• Kuwait’s General Civil Aviation Authority said an emergency plan at Kuwait International Airport was activated after Terminal 1 was targeted by Iranian drones and missiles.
• Air raid sirens sounded in the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
• Explosions were reported in Saudi Arabia.
• Explosions were heard in Qamishli, Syria.
• Earlier reports noted explosions in Iraqi Kurdistan targeting the headquarters of anti-Iranian separatist groups.

US

• US CENTCOM said Iran launched several ballistic missiles toward neighbouring countries.
• CENTCOM said US forces defeated multiple Iranian missiles.
• CENTCOM said US forces conducted self-defence strikes against an Iranian military ground control station on Qeshm Island.
• CENTCOM said three Iranian one-way attack drones targeting civilian maritime traffic were shot down.
• CENTCOM denied IRGC claims that Iran successfully struck the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain or a US airbase in the region.
• CENTCOM said all Iranian attacks on US forces failed.
• CENTCOM said US aircraft disabled a Botswana-flagged oil tanker attempting to sail toward an Iranian port by striking its engine room with a Hellfire missile.

IRAN

• IRGC said the US attacked Qeshm Island and that Iran responded with precise and intensive missile strikes on US bases in Kuwait.
• IRGC warned that any further US aggression would be met with a seismic, crushing and decisive response.
• IRGC said the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain was attacked by missiles and drones.
• IRGC said it targeted a US-affiliated vessel named Panaya with missiles.
• IRGC said the attack was retaliation for the US targeting an IRGC communications tower on Qeshm Island.
• An Iranian senior political source told Amwaj Media that communication with the US through intermediaries had not stopped.
• The source said Qatar and other regional intermediaries were working intensively to prevent a renewed escalation linked to Lebanon.
• Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said Iran would take proportionate measures if Israel continues strikes in Lebanon.

NEGOTIATIONS

• US President Trump said communications between Washington and Tehran remain ongoing.
• Trump said reports that Iran and the US stopped speaking were false and that conversations had been ongoing continuously.
• An Iranian senior political source cited by Amwaj Media said there had been no halt in communications through intermediaries.
• The source said activity across several diplomatic tracks suggested significant developments could be approaching.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said nuclear negotiations are highly complicated and technical and will take time.

COMMENTARY

• Trump said, “Where they lead, one never knows, but as I told Iran, ‘It’s time, one way or another, for you to make a Deal.’”
• ABC News reported Trump is pushing Iran to make firmer nuclear commitments and wants nuclear concessions in writing.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said Iran has mined large segments of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Rubio said the war with Iran has made interactions with Tehran more complicated.
• Rubio also stated that the “war in Iran is over”.
• The US issued fresh Iran-related sanctions.

ISRAEL / LEBANON

• Sky News Arabia, citing a Lebanese source, reported that Israel and Lebanon had not yet reached decisive points regarding a ceasefire.
• Sources said US forces would train and equip the Lebanese army.
• An Israeli official said there was American approval for Israeli forces to remain inside the security zone in southern Lebanon.
• The official added that there were not necessarily restrictions on Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon.
• Hezbollah said it would not accept a partial ceasefire deal with Israel.
• Hezbollah carried out a drone strike on an Israeli command post in southern Lebanon, reportedly wounding eight Israeli soldiers.
• Israeli artillery shelling was reported in the town of Blat in southern Lebanon.