[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 97: US awaits Iran sign-off as Lebanon ceasefire agreement reached but hostilities continue

OVERVIEW

• US President Trump said negotiations with Iran were progressing and suggested a deal could come within days, although talks could also continue for several more weeks.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said the US is awaiting Iran’s final sign-off on negotiations surrounding Tehran’s nuclear programme.
• Iranian officials outlined a four-stage framework for a potential agreement with the US.
• Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a US-brokered ceasefire framework and continue negotiations.

NEGOTIATIONS

Proposal

Iran's negotiating delegation outlined a four-stage proposal:

• Phase 1: End the war and halt military operations.
• Phase 2: Tangible Hormuz measures, including lifting the blockade, removing restrictions, easing oil sanctions and releasing part of Iran’s frozen assets.
• Phase 3: Address sanctions and the nuclear file.
• Phase 4: Create a supervisory committee to oversee implementation and monitor commitments.

Al Hadath reported a similar four-stage structure:

• Phase 1: Cessation of direct military operations.
• Phase 2: Full reopening of maritime traffic.
• Phase 3: Limited sanctions easing.
• Phase 4: Address major issues including Iran’s nuclear programme.

State of talks

• US President Trump suggested a deal could happen over the weekend but added that talks could also continue for another two or three weeks.
• US Secretary of State Rubio told Congress the US is waiting for Iran’s final sign-off on negotiations surrounding Tehran’s nuclear programme.
• Fars, citing a member of Tehran’s negotiating team, reported talks with the US were still ongoing and no final decision had been made.
• The report stated the first phase of Islamabad talks was unsuccessful because Iran refused to enter nuclear negotiations. The report added Iran would not enter an agreement in which Lebanon is ignored.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran and the US are studying exchanged texts.
• Araghchi said there is currently no established negotiation format, although messages continue to be exchanged.
• Pakistani Foreign Minister, on reports of halted US-Iran talks, said "Our dialogue process continues”, Pakistani journalist Mallick posted.
• Trump said the sides are close to signing papers in theory.
• Trump said the US is trying to separate Iran and Lebanon issues.
• CNN reported discussions were taking place regarding a fund that could provide Iran with billions of dollars after a final agreement is reached.
• CNN sources added Trump told advisers he would not sign any agreement involving direct US payments to Iran.

US COMMENTARY

• Trump said the US has been hitting Iran pretty hard and that negotiations were going well.
• Trump said he would rather not use the military against Iran and would rather not wipe Iran out.
• When asked about the ceasefire, Trump said that in that part of the world, a ceasefire means shooting in a more moderate manner.
• WSJ reported Trump privately told aides he would consider ending the ceasefire with Iran if US troops are killed.
• The House passed a War Powers Resolution aimed at curbing Trump’s Iran war powers by a vote of 215-208.

IRAN COMMENTARY

• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iranian armed forces are conducting self-defence strikes on sites the US is permitted to use for attacks on civilian shipping.
• Araghchi warned any hostile act would receive an immediate and decisive response.
• Araghchi said sanctions and war failed to achieve their objectives and would not succeed through further conflict.
• An IRGC spokesperson claimed damage at Kuwait Airport was caused by a US Patriot interceptor malfunction.
• Iranian Supreme leader did not comment on Middle East conflict in remarks

ISRAEL / LEBANON

• Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire in US-brokered talks.
• The ceasefire is contingent on Hezbollah evacuating areas south of the Litani River.
• Lebanese armed forces will take control of pilot zones.
• Israel and Lebanon agreed to reconvene negotiations during the week of 22 June.
• The State Department confirmed both sides agreed to implement the ceasefire.
• The State Department said Israel and Lebanon agreed to advance pilot zones where Lebanese armed forces will exercise exclusive control.

Following the ceasefire announcement:

• Israeli airstrikes were reported in several areas of southern Lebanon.
• Hezbollah said it attacked Israeli positions in southern Lebanon.