ANALYSIS: UK Parliament positioned for a showdown

*LONG STORY SHORT: Parliament is due to return from recess today with a bang as MPs scramble to challenge PM Johnson’s move to prorogue Parliament which would significantly narrow the time for Brexit debates, thus upping the chances of the UK leaving the European Union without a deal.

*THE BILL: The text of the bill which MPs want to use to prevent a no-deal Brexit has been published which, if passed, would mandate PM Johnson to seek a Brexit extension until 31st January 2020 if the PM has not passed a Brexit agreement by 19th October 2019 (the day after the Brexit summit), unless MPs pass a motion to approve a no-deal exit. If the European Council agrees to an extension to the 31 January 2020, then the Prime Minister must immediately accept that extension. If the European Council proposes an extension to a different date then the PM must accept that extension within two days, unless the House of Commons rejects it. MP Hilary Benn stated that the Bill has cross-party support.

*WHAT’S NEXT? (SEE BELOW FOR A SIMPLIFIED FLOWCHART)

Today, MPs who oppose a no-deal have lodged an application with House Speaker Bercow regarding time for a Parliamentary debate on the aforementioned Bill. If time is granted, the vote on the Bill could happen later. (See below for today's indicative schedule)
If 50% of MPs vote in favour of the Bill, it will be rushed through the House of Lords and written into law ahead of next week’s Parliament suspension. Desks highlight that this is not impossible given that a similar bill (Cooper-Letwin Bill) made it into law within three days back in April.
Suggestions have been made that the Government could delay the Bill from passing into law before Parliament is prorogued. Furthermore, PM Johnson could also call for a General Election before Parliament is suspended, which would require the backing of 2/3 of the 650 MPs in order to trigger a poll in Autumn, under the Fixed Term Parliament Act (FTPA). [N.B. PM Johnson can get around the 2/3 majority needed by passing a bill that says "“notwithstanding the FTPA, we will have a general election on XX date”] PM Johnson has warned that if lawmakers vote for another Brexit delay on Tuesday, there will be a vote for a General Election on Wednesday with the view to conduct the vote on 14th October rather than accept another Brexit delay, while reports also suggested that Johnson wants an election before the EU Council meeting scheduled for 17th-18th October.
If the vote on the Bill to delay Brexit is defeated, Opposition Leader Corbyn could immediately put forth a motion of no confidence in the Government. This vote could take place on 5th September.
If the government losses the no-confidence vote, then MPs could attempt to form a caretaker government with the purpose of delaying Brexit and holding a General Election after. Usually, MPs would have a period of 14 calendar days to form an alternate government, although given the circumstances, MPs may only have four to seven days.
If a Government cannot be formed, then an election will be required. It will be up to PM Johnson to set the date, in which he already touted the 14th October.
In the event no legislation is passed to delay Brexit and the vote of no-confidence proves unsuccessful, MPs would have another chance to use legislations or a vote of no confidence when the new Parliamentary session starts on October 14th.

*JOHNSON'S RHETORIC: The UK PM has said he is encouraged by progress on Brexit and that chances of a deal are rising, while he added that the EU can see that the UK wants deal and has a vision for future relationship. PM Johnson also reiterated his argument that getting a deal would be made impossible if MPs vote for a Brexit delay (as it would remove the threat of no deal) and that the UK is to leave on 31st October as he will not ask for a delay under any circumstances but believes UK will get a deal at the October EU summit. Furthermore, UK PM Johnson reportedly issued an ultimatum to former Chancellor Hammond and other Tory rebels that they would be expelled from the party if they join forces with Labour leader Corbyn to halt a no-deal Brexit.

*TODAY'S INDICATIVE SCHEDULE:

15:30BST/10:30ET - PM statement on the G7 summit
16:30BST/11:30ET - UK Chancellor Javid to talk about Brexit preparations
18:30BST/13:30ET - House Speaker hears application for SO24 debate, if granted debate can last 3 hours or until 22:00BST/17:00ET (whichever comes first)
21:30BST/16:30ET - Key vote expected

Source: Sky News' Westminster Senior Editor Lucy Plint

*BREXIT TIMETABLE: