ANALYSIS: UK Parliament prorogation, Benn bill and timings

Today’s Timings – as always with politics timings are approximate

UK PM Johnson in Ireland with Irish PM Varadkar today to presumably discuss the Irish Backstop and likely their opinion on a further extension to Article 50
Benn bill is to receive Royal assent
Emergency (SO24) debate to force the publication of no-deal planning and documentation
16:30BST – Parliament will begin debating the motions against proroguing parliament
22:00BST – The formal bid for prorogation will be placed

Looking Ahead

September 11th – PM Johnson is to appear before the House of Commons Liaison Committee, responding to questions on, amongst other topics, Brexit
September 11th – Scotland’s highest civil court is expected to rule on whether the prorogation of parliament is legal
September 19th: BoE Rate Decision
September 22nd- 25th: Labour Party Conference
September 28th – October 2nd: Tory Party Conference
October 14th: Queen’s Speech
October 17th: Potential General Election date
October 17th- 18th: European Council Meeting (Informal deadline for a Brexit deal to be agreed)
October 21st – 22nd: Votes on the Queen’s Speech
October 31st: Scheduled Brexit date
November 7th: BoE Rate Decision and QIR

What to watch for

Irish PM Varadkar has stated he does not expect much to result from the UK in terms of today’s negotiations, although most recently believes that some common ground can be found but is yet to see any alternative proposals to the Irish Backstop. As such, focus on these comments will be if any new proposals are offered and if this ‘common ground’ equates to a fundamental change in the narrative
In terms of the prorogation, consensus is now that this cannot be stopped legally though September 11th should see a ruling from the Scottish civil court on whether this is legal. Although, if today goes to the governments plan it is unclear as to how much of an effect such a ruling would have.
Regarding the Benn bill which, in essence, would compel Johnson to seek a further extension from the EU, and then accept one if this is offered. The bill is due to receive Royal assent today at which point it will formally be written into UK law. In-spite of this, PM Johnson continues to reiterate his stance that we must leave by October 31st and is reportedly to draw up plans to legally sabotage a Brexit extension; although, further reports indicate that Johnson would have to accept such a delay if it is forced on him by the legal system.
Finally, today’s SO24 emergency bills are designed to force the Government to publish no-deal planning documentation alongside an emergency debate on PM Johnson adhering to the law. This specifically refers to the prorogation advice the government have taken and any further details to the Yellowhammer documents. And the debate on the PM adhering to the law is likely aimed at defining the legal ramifications and what Parliament can do in the event that Johnson chooses to defy the Benn bill and as such break the law. (ITV's Paul Brand)