Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker (Q3): 3.7% (prev. 3.7%)

An unchanged nowcast carries no new information; the model is a mechanical aggregation of released data, so its moves matter only insofar as they signal what the latest inputs imply, and a flat reading simply confirms the prior signal. The tracker has historically run hot or cold relative to the eventual BEA print, with the gap narrowing as the quarter fills in, so late-quarter readings carry more weight than early ones. A nowcast at this kind of level describes above-trend growth, which in past episodes has kept the front end sensitive to upside inflation surprises and leaned against near-term easing pricing, though the nowcast itself is not a Fed input and officials have historically referenced it only in passing. The inputs worth watching are the ones that move the model most: consumption, net exports, and inventory data, since swings in the trade and inventory components have accounted for much of the tracker's volatility across quarters. The follow-on calendar is the remaining Q3 source data and then the advance GDP estimate, where the market tests the nowcast against consensus rather than against the model itself.