Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker (Q3): 3.7% (prev. 3.8%)

GDPNow is a running nowcast, not an official print, and revisions of this size between updates are routine: the tracker has historically drifted by tenths as each incremental release, consumption, trade, inventories, feeds the model, with the final estimate often landing some distance from the early readings. The composition of a revision matters more than the direction: a move driven by net exports or inventories is treated differently by desks than one driven by consumption or fixed investment, since the former is prone to reversal and the latter feeds directly into the demand narrative the Fed watches. Episodes where the nowcast ran materially above the eventual official estimate have been common enough that the market reaction to the tracker itself is typically muted, with the front end waiting on hard data instead. The relevant follow-ons are the releases that slot into the model next, particularly those touching personal spending and business investment, and whether Fed commentary begins citing nowcasts as evidence of above-trend momentum. A print holding near this level would sit comfortably above most estimates of trend, which is the comparison that matters for the rates path rather than the tenth of a revision.