Bank of America (BAC) says the co's data show the US economy is becoming more broad based; adds that lower percentile wage growth is now above the upper two groups, whilst discretionary spending is rising across all income groups

Bank card and deposit data of this kind has become a standing alternative read on the US consumer, and in past cycles it has tended to front-run the official aggregates by a few weeks, particularly on spending mix and wage dynamics by income cohort.

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Bank of America (BAC) says the co's data show the US economy is becoming more broad based; adds that lower percentile wage growth is now above the upper two groups, whilst discretionary spending is rising across all income groups

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  • Now sees continue growth in the near-term.
Context

The specific claim here, lower-percentile wage growth running above the upper cohorts with discretionary spending broadening, is the reverse of the late-cycle pattern that has historically preceded consumer-led slowdowns, where the bottom of the income distribution cracks first while aggregate spending still holds up. That distinction matters for transmission: broad-based strength supports the soft-landing pricing embedded in consumer credit and bank names, whereas a low-end rollover would typically show up first in subprime delinquencies and card charge-offs before appearing in headline consumption. The caveat is the source: a single bank's panel, however large, skews by geography and customer mix, and prior episodes have shown such reads diverging from census-level data for stretches. What follows is the corroboration sequence, whether peer banks' proprietary data and the next round of labour and retail releases tell the same story, and whether the wage compression claim survives revision.

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