Banxico Deputy Governor Heath says recent inflation data is very good, but not a victory

• Risk assessment is on the rise, number one factor is persistent services inflation.

Commentary pairing encouragement on headline data with an explicit refusal to declare victory is the standard register Banxico officials have used through the later stages of disinflation, and it has historically signalled a board inclined to keep easing gradual rather than to accelerate it. The distinction that matters is the one Heath himself draws: goods and headline prints can cooperate while services inflation, sticky by construction and tied to domestic wage dynamics, is what has actually governed the pace of cuts in past cycles of this kind. Flagging a rising risk assessment from a deputy governor reads as a shift in the balance-of-risks language rather than in the rate path itself; changes to that language have tended to precede changes in the statement's guidance, which is the more tradeable event. Heath has form as one of the board's more analytically cautious voices, so the emphasis on persistence is consistent with his prior positioning rather than a new signal from the centre of the board. Transmission runs through the front end of the TIIE curve and the MXN carry case, where the appeal of the yield buffer has historically blunted MXN selling on hawkish-leaning rhetoric unless global risk appetite is deteriorating at the same time. The follow-ons are whether the same framing appears in other board members' remarks and in the next statement's risk paragraph, and the upcoming split inflation prints where the services component is the tell.