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Banxico lowers its overnight rate to 6.25% (exp. 6.50%, prev. 6.50%); says the board was split on the rate decision, Galia Borja and Jonathan Heath voted in favour of a hold

Newsquawk Staff ·

Inflation

  • The Governing Board judged that the disinflation process continues.
  • It assessed that, under the prevailing slack conditions, the pass-through of exchange rate fluctuations to consumer prices would be limited.
  • It estimated that no demand-side pressures are currently perceived in the Mexican economy and that the level of monetary restriction implemented continues operating.
  • Headline inflation forecasts were revised upwards for the fourth quarter of 2026 mainly due to higher levels of non-core inflation anticipated for that period.
  • Core inflation forecasts were adjusted slightly upwards for the same period.
  • Headline inflation is still expected to converge to the target in the fourth quarter of 2027.
  • The balance of risks for the trajectory of inflation within the forecast horizon remains biased to the upside.

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Looking ahead

  • The Governing Board considers that maintaining the reference rate at the attained level for an extended period will support the convergence of inflation to its target and will be adequate to face the challenges posed by the external macroeconomic environment..
  • It will make its decisions considering the observed and expected behavior of inflation and its determinants, including the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices, the slack conditions, and inflation expectations.
  • The central bank reaffirms its commitment to its primary mandate and the need to continue its efforts to consolidate an environment of low and stable inflation.

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