Barclays expects BoE to hike rates 25bps in November, and then another 25bps in February 2027; cites persistent inflation risks, and the impact from the Middle East conflict

Sell-side rate calls of this kind move front-end pricing mainly when they shift the perceived distribution of outcomes rather than confirm it; Barclays is an active, well-followed voice on BoE strategy, but a single house projecting two hikes across a horizon this long is a view on the path, not new information about the MPC itself. The mechanism runs through SONIA futures and the short end of the gilt curve, with the二月 call effectively a statement that the Bank would be tightening into next year, a sequencing that historically only gains traction when the Bank's own communications lean the same way. The framing matters: citing persistent inflation alongside Middle East conflict implies a supply-side rationale, and central banks facing energy-driven price pressure have in past episodes distinguished between looking through a level shift in prices and responding to second-round wage effects, with the former arguing for patience and the latter for exactly this kind of extended hiking profile. The tell is whether the MPC's own rhetoric treats the conflict shock as inflationary or as demand-negative, since those readings point in opposite policy directions. Worth watching is whether other houses cluster around this call and how it sits against prevailing market pricing for November, since divergence between house forecasts and the curve is where the repositioning risk sits.