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BoC Governor Macklem says they have not really seen new markets open up yet for Canadian firms, it is something they are looking for

Governor Macklem's comments signal caution regarding the Canadian economy's growth amid structural weaknesses, particularly in trade with the U.S.

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BoC Governor Macklem says they have not really seen new markets open up yet for Canadian firms, it is something they are looking for

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  • An AI productivity boost means the Canadian economy could grow more without adding inflation pressure.
  • Welcomes nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair.
  • We're clearly worried about risks to the outlook on both sides.
  • The fact that some of the weakness is structural means that if we lower rates too much, that will stoke inflation down the road.
  • Structural headwinds are not temporary, trade relationship with US is fundamentally fractured. 
  • There is concern that the large China trade surplus is unsustainable, this is not something that needs to get fixed overnight. 
Context

His remarks about the AI productivity boost suggest a potential for growth without inflation, but the emphasis on structural issues indicates a reluctance to cut rates aggressively, which could lead to future inflation pressures. This guidance may weigh on the CAD and influence expectations for Canadian monetary policy moving forward.

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