BoC's Macklem: "Governing Council will continue to assess the strength of the Canadian economy and the outlook for inflation and is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed. "

Newsquawk Staff · 15 Jul 2026, 14:05 UTC

"We’ve been looking through the direct effects of higher oil prices on inflation, but the longer they remain elevated, the bigger the risk they spill over to other goods and services. As we have said before, we will not let higher oil prices become persistent inflation."
"Overall, our growth outlook is similar to our April forecast, but the data we have received since April have increased our confidence that the economy is indeed working its way through this period of global upheaval."

Three Main Messages from the BoC

"First, after stalling over the past year, economic growth looks to have resumed in Canada. While US trade policy continues to be a headwind, consumers have been resilient and businesses are adapting."
"Second, inflation in Canada is poised to ease gradually provided global oil prices decline from elevated levels."
"Third, uncertainty remains elevated. The conflict in the Middle East has re-escalated in recent days and trade discussions with the United States are ongoing."

On the projections

"Following GDP growth of 0.7% in 2026, the economy is projected to grow by 1.8% in both 2027 and 2028. As the recovery proceeds, economic slack will be gradually absorbed."
"Inflation is expected to stay elevated in June then ease gradually in the coming months, returning to the 2% target in early 2027. This forecast is highly dependent on the path for oil and gasoline prices—it assumes oil prices come down and stabilize between US$70-US$75 per barrel. Since finalizing our forecast on Friday, the futures curve for oil prices has moved higher."

Sources

bankofcanada.ca

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US Market Open, 22 Oct, 10:37 UTC · what it led with

Iran's IRGC Navy warned that US efforts to encourage passage could result in strikes on US bases.
Iran's Major General Rezaei said Iran has presented seven new conditions through mediators and will neither reopen the Strait of Hormuz nor resume negotiations until they are met.

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Three Main Messages from the BoC

On the projections

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