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BoC's SCE for Q1 2026: Shows consumer spending plans are muted due to high prices and economic uncertainty.

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BoC's SCE for Q1 2026: Shows consumer spending plans are muted due to high prices and economic uncertainty.

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  • In Q1 2026, before the war in the Middle East, consumers’ spending plans remained muted, held back by concerns about high prices and economic uncertainty. Still, consumers became less negative about their spending plans than in the previous quarter as downward pressure from trade tensions eased.
  • Consumers continued to view the labour market as soft, with fears of losing their job still elevated. This quarter, concerns about job losses increased among workers in sectors where artificial intelligence poses a higher risk of task replacement.
  • Before the war in the Middle East, near‑term inflation expectations were largely unchanged and still above the survey’s historical average. Expectations of strong food price inflation remain an important driver of high one‑year‑ahead inflation expectations. Long‑term inflation expectations declined slightly from 12 months ago.
  • Results of a special survey conducted after the outbreak of the war in the Middle East suggest most households expect the war to weaken the Canadian economy and raise prices.
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