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BoE Chief Economist Pill (Dissenter, voted to hike 25bps) says there is high uncertainty over how far the energy inflation shock will spread

Pill's remarks highlight a divided stance within the BoE regarding inflation management, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions affecting energy prices.

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  • There is a lot of discussion on the MPC around tightening.
  • Policy should not over react to short-term volatility.
  • Tightening in financial conditions does seem a reasonable response to inflation risk from Iran war.
  • MPC has varied opinions on second-round impacts.
  • MPC does not want to lock itself in on rates, needs to remain flexible.
  • MPC has also stressed it is ready to act if necessary.
  • Choosing to keep rates unchanged is not a passive choice.
  • Main difference between his position and majority of MPC is that he was more concerned about stalling of disinflation before Iran war.
  • As a result, thought they should be acting more promptly in response to new inflation pressure. 
Context

His call for a proactive approach contrasts with his colleagues' more cautious position, suggesting potential shifts in the bank’s rate strategy if inflationary pressures persist. This uncertainty could influence market expectations around future rate hikes and the overall direction of GBP and fixed income assets.

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