BoE Chief Economist Pill says he is somewhat more sceptical of market pricing for four rate hikes over the next year

Verbal pushback against market pricing is a familiar tool when a gap opens between the committee's view and the curve, and it has historically been the first stage before any formal guidance, giving the front end and SONIA strip a chance to reprice without the bank committing to anything. The distinction worth drawing is between rejecting the number of hikes and rejecting the direction: scepticism framed as 'somewhat more' targets the pace and scale embedded in pricing rather than the tightening bias itself, which typically flattens the very front of the gilt curve and cheapens terminal rate pricing more than it moves long maturities. The Chief Economist carries particular weight here since the role sits close to the forecast round, and comments timed near an MPR or minutes cycle have tended to signal the internal debate more reliably than off-cycle remarks. Worth watching is whether other MPC members echo or contradict the tone, since pushback from a single official has faded quickly in past episodes unless it reflects the committee's centre of gravity. The transmission runs through the two to three year sector of the gilt curve, GBP via the rate differential against peers, and the spread between market pricing and the bank's own implied path. The next MPC communications and the calendar of speeches are the follow-ons.