BoE Governor Bailey (post-meeting statement) says it is not inevitable that today's hike is the start of a series of hikes

ECONOMY

Activity has been more resilient in the face of shocks
Much of strength in GDP has been driven by B2B
AI investment has driven part of the strength in activity
A fifth of GDP growth has been driven by AI investment
Strengthening economy has not been broad-based
Whether strength of activity persists is an important judgement for the MPC

LABOUR MARKET

Private sector wage growth is seen little changed in the coming months
Underlying wage growth slightly below target rate
War has not driven wage gains, but could build next year

INFLATION

Food price inflation has consistently undershot BoE forecasts this year
Easing cost pressures has contributed, but as these factors wane, BoE expects to see food price inflation rise
Expects core goods inflation to increase somewhat, the extent is uncertain

ENERGY

Global energy prices remain elevated; monpol cannot influence global energy prices
Longer the conflict persists, the higher rates will need to be, but it is highly uncertain; says this view is a risk, rather than a commitment
Latest decline in oil prices is positive news
If we continue to get good news on the conflict, that will reduce risks of further hikes, could see inflation peaking 'somewhat below' 5%
Volatility has been evident in the last 48hrs

STANCE

Will adjust rates as necessary to ensure inflation reaches target

Headlines that moved markets

FX headlines from our feed, and what the market did next.

Iranian President Pezeshkian says the Supreme Leader has granted the government some authority on dialogue, ISNA reports.

EUR/USD+0.1%

ECB policymakers see a December rate hike followed by a pause; New ECB staff estimates show the rise in bond yields cutting growth by a cumulative 100bps and inflation by 90bps in 2027-28 vs the September baseline, according to reports, citing sources.

EUR/USD−0.1%

ECB President Lagarde (Q&A) says policymakers believe they are in a good position to wait for incoming information. The situation they are in could have warranted a hike.