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BoE Governor Bailey says have to monitor the situation in the Middle East and how it affects the UK economy and inflation very closely and adjust policy as required

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[MARKET UPDATE] Crude continues gradually grinding lower, in turn supporting equities, fixed income, USD-pairs and spot gold; news flow light in recent trade

Japan's supplementary budget may reach JPY 3.1135tln for FY26 to address the costs associated to the Middle East situation, Nikkei reports; funding to be sourced through issuance of deficit-covering govt bonds

BoE Governor Bailey says have to monitor the situation in the Middle East and how it affects the UK economy and inflation very closely and adjust policy as required

Reports of explosions in Western Homs, Syria, Tasnim reports; later reports suggest explosions were remnants of ammunition

Omani crude OSP for July delivery at USD 97.32/bbl (vs USD 111.44/bbl for June)

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  • Having taken expected cuts off the table for now, we have already tightened policy considerably in response to the shock relative to what had been expected by markets.
  • Uncertainty about the strength of second-round effects means that monetary policy needs to balance the costs of leaning too little against these effects against the costs of responding too much.-
  • Tolerating temporarily above-target inflation to provide some support for the real economy is an appropriate way to approach the trade-off. But that tolerance would weaken if signs of second-round effects begin to emerge.
  • Higher inflation expectations are not coming through in wage expectations and settlements.
  • Hope a fall in UK bond market curve will go on but depends on events in the Middle East.
  • Markets "obviously" see pressure on fiscal plans of government from Iran war impact.
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