BoE MPS (Apr): end-2026 Bank Rate seen at 3.75% (3.25% in Feb. survey)
- 89% of respondents expected a hold in April, 9.8% a 25bps hike to 4.00%.
- 67% of respondents expected a hold in June, 24.7% a 25bps hike to 4.00%.
Context
The latest BoE MPS indicates an upward revision of the end-2026 Bank Rate forecast from 3.25% to 3.75%. This suggests a potential shift in the Bank's stance towards a more hawkish outlook, reflecting inflationary pressures that could impact the monetary policy trajectory. The overwhelming expectation for a hold in April, with only a small percentage anticipating a hike, signals cautious sentiment among market participants ahead of the decision.
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