BoE's Bailey (Q&A) says the received information on the upside rissk for food inflation is lower than what they previously thought it would be, which is encouraging, though subject to risk and uncertainty

• Ramsden adds that there are risks around El Nino, and other points, which make the outlook uncertain; a point explaining why they see the risks to inflation tilted to the upside, vs the central projection.

Food inflation has been the component UK rate-setters have repeatedly flagged as a source of upside risk, so a governor saying the received information points lower than previously feared is the kind of marginal dovish signal that typically moves the front of the gilt curve only modestly on its own, since it arrives as commentary rather than a forecast revision. The distinction worth drawing is between the central projection and the risk balance around it: Bailey softens the former while Ramsden keeps the latter tilted to the upside, citing weather-related and other external supply risks, a pairing that has recurred whenever the Bank has wanted to acknowledge encouraging data without conceding the skew. Remarks framed as 'subject to risk and uncertainty' are the standard formulation officials use when the direction of travel is improving but the committee is not yet prepared to move the modal path. Historically, follow-through has depended on whether subsequent MPC speakers and the next food and services prints confirm the read, with a single official's Q&A rarely sufficient to reprice the path on its own. Worth noting is who said what: the governor moderating the upside case while a deputy underlines the tail risks is a familiar division of labour rather than a split. As commentary rather than a decision, the signal is directional, mildly dovish at the margin for near-term pricing.