BoE's Bailey says policymakers are facing a trade off between growth and inflation
- The Middle East conflict entirely explains the inflation overshoot.
- Outlook is for slower growth but not a recession. Highlights uncertainty in forecasting and concern over growth drivers.
- Can't wait for hard evidence on second-round effects.
- Tighter financial conditions provide the BoE with space to wait.
- Has to be confidence that the 2% inflation target is attainable.
- ONS is doing the right things, but needs to do more.
- Labour Force Survey participation rate has returned to pre-pandemic levels.
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